Mariners Analysis

2009-04-30T13:52:00.001-07:00

Team continues to show warts

No one is complaining about being in first place, but if we learned anything this road trip it's that this team is not, today, a playoff caliber team. (Sure if Griffey and Sweeney enter a time machine and remove ten years, and Beltre thinks its '04 again, we might see this team being a force in October.)

But you can't continue to hope you hold the other team to a couple of runs every night to have a chance to win. And you cant' expect the occasional 9-run outbursts to be a sign of hope either. If this team is going to remain in first, it needs to improve the offense.

Jack, we need you to make a decision on Yuni. Is this really the SS of your team going forward? So far the answer seems to be yes, but I can't believe that is your final answer.

Clement, how does he help this team?

Left-handed pinch hitter? Go get one.

They are small steps but will help our pitchers win games. I'm sure our front office has noticed the Angels have started winning again and getting closer and closer. I'm not worried about "upsetting" this team by making changes as long as we have Bedard and Feliz heading out 40% of the time. Go Jack, make this team better.

2009-04-28T12:31:00.000-07:00

Could be a tough series

Chicago double header today and a split would be great. I don't know about other Mariner fans but I have a bad feeling about Chicago's lineup and our pitching. We haven't been scoring many runs and it may lead to Felix being overly concerned about not giving up any, which invariable leads to crooked numbers...

Would I be shocked if Chicago swept? No. Would I be happy with us winning two games in the series? Ecstatic.

There is not a team in the division at .500 and the Mariners really have a chance to put some distance to cushion the inevitable ups and downs of the season. The last thing to do is get complacent and allow the "we're winning so why mess with things" thinking to take hold. They need to:

Get Joh back. I know plenty of fans don't like him or his contract, but we can't keep playing with a catcher who hits like Willie Bloomquist. Johnson has no power and his defense is poor. The sooner we get a real catcher back the better. I really struggle to wonder why the teams likes Johnson so much. (I don't see it at all)
Figure out what to do with Clement. Swap him with Johnson, move him to first base permanently, do something. He doesn't need to hit AAA any more and the team needs to be executing a plan, not killing time hoping Johnson magically transforms.
Get Wlad at bats. This is a no brainer and the downside to the Griffey signing that many of us pointed out. This team needs power and needs to figure out if Wlad is part of the solution long term. Get him as many at bats as possible both to help now and to help figure out the future roster.
Get ready to trade Batista. You'll need to eat 90%+ of his contract, but there are teams like the Nationals desparate for bullpen help. Call around and figure out how to make it happen, with an outright release the final option. You need roster flexibilty and Batista has no real use on this team this season or beyond.
Get more bench help. If you can't figure out how to use 12 pitchers regularly, get a real bench and use it. This offense is anemic and pinch hitters will make a difference. The team should be looking at every opportunity to make this team better, no matter how small the improvement. They need to feel like they can steal the division this year if they are smart. Act like it.
Continue to plan for Yuni replacement. His defense is bad. His approach at the plate is bad. He has no power. How can this be your SS of the future? Continue to work the phones finding a replacement, even if we have to wait till the ASB.
Start thinking of Griffey speeches if he continues to falter. If it's mid-June and he's still not hitting, you need to cut back his playing time. The fans won't like it but we can't go to the ASB with Johnson and a lousy #3 hitter. Think of how you might broach the subject with him now, and hope you never have to use it.

Go Felix!

2009-04-22T11:54:00.001-07:00

Seen this from Washburn before

A couple of years ago, Washburn had a nice stretch where he was quite effective. I watched him pitch and was amazed how well he painted the corners and just didn't give batters much to hit in the middle of the plate.

I wrote on this blog how he really looked like a good pitcher.

I was wrong.

What I realized later is command is a fickle mistress. Just like the golfer who gets in a groove, Washburn is hitting every fairway and green and making it look easy. But the problem is all golfers, even Tiger Woods, have to hit from the cart path. Tiger can win majors even when his command is off, as he has the talent and experience to hit shots the rest of us could only dream of.

Washburn will have nights this season where his command is missing. He'll have nothing to fall back on, as he doesn't have the stuff to make up for it.

All pitchers have nights where they can't locate their pitches. If Felix can't spot his fastball, he still has an effective change-up. slider and curve to work with. If Washburn doesn't have pinpoint command, he has nothing. And once you have command problems, it gets in your head and good luck getting it back.

I'm happy Wasbburn is in a groove. I hope it continues for as long as possiblem. But don't think for a second he's become the new Jamie Moyer. His command will leave, sooner then you think. And the old Wash will return.

2009-04-17T12:34:00.000-07:00

Bullpen still a work in progress

No reason for us to be surprised the team lost to the Angels in the final game of the series. We knew this team would be challenged to score runs on a consistent basis. Last night the starting pitching was more then we could have possible expected, but realistically the team only scored one run and you're not going to win a lot of games with that level of output. So our offense went missing and the bullpen gave up some runs it couldn't afford to give up. This will be repeated many times this season I'm sure.

It is interesting to note the attendance after the opener. I was there Tuesday and it turns out there were only twelve more yesterday, so I'm not sure where all the Griffey supporters are.

We were told when the team signed Griffey fans would flock to ballpark just to see him. I guess I failed to read the fine print of the guarantee. Apparently they will show, but not if it's April midweek against the primary division rival.

It's funny to think about. I love Griffey so much I'll go to the game just for him, but not during the week. Just too busy and hectic. And I want it warm. I love Griffey, but not in the cold.

So to summarize, the Griffey ticket sales will happen when its warm and on the weekend. (apparently)

I think I'll stick to the midweek games, even if it means less rally fry opportunities.

2009-04-15T13:44:00.001-07:00

Adam Jones sure looks good

There is no way as a Mariner fan you can't have an interest in Adam Jones. There were plenty of fans who were convinced Wlad was the better power hitter and ready replacement, and the team was all to happy to insinuate Jones was expendable due to his presence. I think that fantasy has offically been put to rest.

(Of course real talent evaluators loved Jones and saw Wlad for what he is- a guy who had one great season in AAA but otherwise still has lots of question marks.)

Dave over at USS Mariner caught a lot of heat for claiming he wouldn't trade Bedard for Jones straight up. So all the critics who said Cameron was crazy- how do you feel now?

Does the fact Jones is one of the best defensive outfielders in all baseball while making next to nothing mean anything to you? Does the fact his first week of the season has him slugging over .600 change your opinion of his value? I'll admit I still check his numbers regularly and root for him. It's not his fault or my fault we had a bunch of short-sighted critics who didn't correctly value "rookies."

Hargrove wasn't interested in playing a rookie like Jones to see what he could do. Jose Guillen didn't care if Jones had potential. Bavasi didn't care. McLaren didn't care. Baker argued the team was better off with Jones on the bench so Vidro and Ibanez could get at bats.

It's great Bedard is on the team. He's a nice pitcher but he's a free agent after this season and he's injury prone. Would I trade Bedard back to Baltimore for Adam Jones?

In a heartbeat. How about you?

2009-04-14T14:03:00.000-07:00

Will Silva suck tonight?

I'm pretty sure the PR department for the Mariners would have preferred ANY pitcher other than Carlos Silva to pitch tonight. But that's now how it worked out, and he'll be under a huge microscope on opening day.

The team is 5-2 and people are excited about the possibility they might be competitive this year.
Griffey and the crazed love affair the city has with him.
Packed stadium
Everyone's preseason favorite Angels who owned the Mariners last year facing him
Silva sucked last year and is a poster child of the Bavasi regime
Silva was terrible in his first start and largely responsible for one of the teams losses

Silva really couldn't have more pressure on him.

The season will be a lot more enjoyable for everyone if Carlos Silva pitches well tonight. History says he won't. Can he catch a break tonight?

2009-04-13T12:41:00.000-07:00

Please keep on winning

With Ichiro about to join a 5-2 club, can we please get some more wins?

If the club loses, whether it's blown saves, bad calls whatever... Ichiro will immediately get blamed by the ignorant masses as the satan-child they believe he is and countless articles and annoying comments will be made saying the team is better of without him.

He is our best position player and endlessly fascinating at the same time. The fact he is different and from another country however causes a bullseye to be placed on him by some "fans." (I use the term "fan" here loosely because really they are complete idiots)

So if we had our choice- win a few games with Ichiro or win without, we also choose with because of the risk of stirring up these "fans" and their crazy theories. But we don't have a choice and the team started the season playing like we hoped.

Let's pray they keep the winning for a while longer, if only to keep a lid on the Ichiro-haters out there.

2009-04-09T11:22:00.000-07:00

Will Silva last the year?

Remember when Ryan Franklin couldn't buy a win for the Mariners? If he held the team to a couple of runs, it didn't matter as the team found a way to lose. With Silva on a similar path, is it impossible to think it might happen and the team has no choice but to ditch him this year?

Think about it. Let's say Silva does pitch better but the results in the win column don't reflect it. If the Mariners are hanging around the division leaders in July, say 4-5 games back, can they afford to continually send out a 2-8 Silva to the mound? The public will start booing, Silva feels even more stress to produce... it could get ugly.

I'm not predicting a doomsday scenario, but I can easily imagine a public relations disaster looming if Silva doesn't get this thing going. The old "moving Carlos to the bullpen to straighten his mechanics out" or "mysterious arm injury- DL" trip may be in order.

Ryan Franklin needed a change in scenery. There is a chance the Mariners may need to jettison Carlos Silva this year, no matter how much it costs them.

2009-04-08T13:01:00.000-07:00

Morrow blow ups bound to happen

Brandon chose to be the closer, and the team was only too happy to oblige. We remember he had a rocky spring and it's going to take a while to get this entire bullpen figured out. Should we expect more of these debacles? Of course. Does that make it hurt any less? No.

Meanwhile, the competing sports radio hosts are going crazy trying to explain/drum up emotions over the loss. Geoff Baker was on with Mitch this morning, and tried to explain the whole "Morrow decision" about moving to the bullpen.

The biggest thing not mentioned?

Morrow's reluctance to work in the minors to develop himself as a pitcher.

Remember, thanks to the rocket science combo of Hargrove/Bavasi, Brandon Morrow has not had to spend a lot of time in the minors. His move to the bullpen means he's broken camp with the big club every year. Instead of building up arm strength in the minors, developing off speed pitches, figuring out how to handle his diabetes as a starter... he has gotten used to THE SHOW. People carrying your bags. Per diems. Chartered air.

This year the team faced a problem with Morrow. If he was going to be a starter, he was going to need to go back to the minors to work this stuff out. Spring training wasn't enough.

You think Morrow didn't know this? You think he never thought of bus rides? Minor league money? You think this didn't play a HUGE decision in his decision to remain with the club as a reliever instead of heading down south to AAA and all that entails?

Morrow took the easy route when he decided to stay as Brandon-the-closer instead of Brandon-the-starter. He has no idea if he can be a starter with diabetes, but he knows he'll make nice money as a reliever, and really nice money long term if he can be a closer.

Morrow avoided going back to AAA and correcting the mistake Bavasi and Hargrove made years ago. Last night, in the 9th, we all paid the price for Morrow learning on the job instead of in Tacoma. Let's hope he develops in to the closer he thinks he can real fast.

2009-04-06T14:58:00.000-07:00

Aumont news tough way to end spring training

Instead of being excited to see Felix pitch, I'm still bummed over the idiotic decision to move Aumont to the bullpen.

Quick question for Jack. The Yankees have this guy starting the game for them and he's 6'7" too. Would you move him to the bullpen?

Seriously, this really makes me question our new GM's approach. When even Geoff Baker is immediately going "wait, are you serious" you should be worried. Call me worried.

But the team is going to play, and I'm guessing they are going to win 70-something games. The good news is somebody is going to surprise us, in a pleasant way. Last year most of the team underperformed, with only a few bright spots like Lopez. This year, I fully expect a few players to break out.

Go Felix, it's sunny out and the games count. This was a long winter and I'm excited to watch baseball again.

2009-03-31T10:48:00.001-07:00

The mysterious case of Shin-Soo Choo

Remember when the Mariners had a kid coming up from the farm system from Korea? He played the outfield and generated a little buzz in the minors. His numbers were never spectacular but scouts liked his game and he eventually made the majors when the big club was forced to play kids more than usual because they sucked.

The general consensus among fans of the team was 4th outfielder at best. This is what we had heard was his ceiling coming in and he certainly did little to discourage that thinking upon arrival. I still remember a few "curious" routes he took on fly balls, and remember thinking he doesn't hit that well and struggles playing defense. I wasn't all that impressed.

The first sign I should have re-evaluated my position was probably when we heard Cleveland was interested in him. When Cabrera was traded to Cleveland I feared we were giving up a really good infielder, and my fear was justified. With Choo I should have asked more questions.

New Rule: When Cleveland wants one of your prospects, watch out. They more often than not know what they are doing.

Last season saw Choo go on a tear after the all star break, and he is all of 26. Would I take Choo back? In a heartbeat. Did I misjudge his talent potential? Yes.

Rule #2. When your team is bad, make the hard decision to play your kids. Don't let one or two month sample sizes sway your opinion. (This goes both ways. Just because a kid comes up and hits 5 home runs his first week doesn't change a thing.)

So remember these rules when you hear fans crying for Clement to be traded. This team won't be all that good this year and it's the perfect time to see what kids can do.

This team can't afford to give up on talent too easily.

2009-03-30T10:47:00.000-07:00

Morrow situation sucks

Remember last year when Morrow pitched against the Yankees at Safeco? And for a moment, Mariner fans could look ahead and dream about a rotation with Felix and Morrow and see light ahead.

Today that dream is officially shattered with the news Morrow is no longer a starting candidate.

Blame?

Easy. Every hand in the decisions over the years to keep Morrow in the pen, looking at the short term gain ahead of the future of the club. This is squarely on Bavasi's shoulders, McLaren, Hargrove and the rest of the staff who continued to try to win now and worry about the future later.

Well today the future is now and the Mariners used the #5 pick on a reliever. To make things worse, Fontaine and company drafted Josh Fields with the #17 pick who is also limited to one inning stints.

That is how you create a bad franchise. Use your draft picks incorrectly and you'll be in the basement for a long, long time. (And for the record, the Fields pick is still a complete leftover on Bavasi and company. You can't pin Jack for signing Fields. Not signing would mean the team would need to wait until next year to see this years signing take the field- the comp pick this year is not guaranteed and the signing would be almost guaranteed to be long and drawn out. Take Fields now, as opposed to next year with the 24 pick. Easy decision for Jack.)

The first real problem I do have with Zduriencik is the decision to send Clement to AAA. He is 25, mashes AAA pitching and has nothing left to prove. You've had your #3 pick for years, now is the time to see what you have.

Bad Monday to be a Mariner fan. Not the end of the world, but not what we wanted either.

2009-03-24T16:52:00.000-07:00

Tampa and the Mariners

ESPN has an article about David Price and if he should be sent to the minors. The quote from their GM is...

It's a fine line because we're so reliant on our young players, and we always will be. So development has to be the key. We can't do something that provides a slight benefit in '09 if it's going to be detrimental to 2010, '11 and '12. We can't run away from that. We have to maintain that mindset, or we will not be able to sustain success.

Compare that line of thinking with the way Brandon Morrow has been handled.

If Morrow ends up in AAA for some time, I think we can agree the new regime couldn't be more different from Bavasi and Hargrove.

2009-03-17T14:39:00.000-07:00

Griffey playing situation likely to end ugly

I've already discussed my fear with Griffey- he wants to play the field and the management team will feel forced to play him more than they should. The pressure will come from multiple angles.

1) Griffey will let everyone know he prefers to play the field. Every 0-4 game will have a quote from Baker the next morning along the lines of "I'm used to playing every day" and "hard to come off the bench cold and stay loose" and every other anti-DH cliche you can come up with. Plus, don't forget Atlanta was ready to sign him to play the field. This will get mentioned at least 4 million times during the season.

2) Fans who want to see him play the outfield. Expect at least 500 quotes from kids about this.

3) Seattle Times. Story after story this summer will keep feeding one and two. It sells papers and creates controversy while the team continues along its rebuilding plan.

I just really fear this ends poorly. I hope I'm wrong and Don and Jack sit Griffey down and explain the best way to hit his incentives is to be a DH. If Griffey lets his ego get in the way and makes a big stink about it, things gets ugly fast.

What we should hope for-

* Griffey hits great early as a DH. Pray he hits a home run every time he steps to the plate as a DH.
* Griffey looks terrible in the field and feels terrible the next day physically. This will put an end to the madness.

Otherwise it will only be the inevitable injury that leads to Griffey sitting on the bench this year when his team takes the field.

2009-03-13T15:58:00.000-07:00

Good stuff in Mariner land

As baseball fans we get a little antsy waiting for the games to count. Sometimes a little pot stirring can be fun as the days get warmer, and todays discussion re: the Mariners defense certainly fits the bill.

Geoff Baker gets things started by claiming the Mariners defense was above average this year.

I love it that Geoff is using advanced metrics to talk about defense. I love it Geoff is talking to people like John Dewan. For the average baseball fan who gets most of their information from the local paper, this is a fantastic trend.

However, while Geoff is making progress I have to say he has a ways to go still.

My position is simple- no one who actively watched the team last year can honestly say defense was not a serious issue. Really, it's no more complicated then that.

How anyone could watch Ritchie Sexson with a lateral range of 4 inches play the infield and not see a problem is a mystery. How anyone could watch Yuni throw wide after struggling to get to a routine ball and not see a problem is a mystery. Do we even need to talk about Raul?

I don't have an issue with Geoff talking with John or publishing the results. But he should have applied a basic sniff test. Sort of a "did my eyes concur with the data I am seeing now?" It would almost be as if someone went to Geoff and told him the Mariners actually won 82 games last year. The brain would immediately question the data.

The article should have been based more on the subject of "can you believe what I was just told" rather than simply taken as fact. There is no way Geoff can say he watched the team last year and didn't notice any problems. There is just no way.

I'm not a baseball scout but I'm an avid baseball fan. I've seen a fair amount of games over the years and to my beginner eyes the 2008 Mariners were terrible fielding the ball. If someone tells me they have proof otherwise I'll take a look at it, but I have to say I'll be mighty skeptical...

2009-03-10T09:35:00.000-07:00

Mariners "lose" money

Over at the Puget Sound Business Journal we hear the Mariners are reporting a loss for the 2008 season- link

Over at the PI- we get a little more info- link

We know the Mariners have been playing a PR game with the public for years, and the local newspapers and media outlets are only too willing to play along. So the Mariners say they lost money? Well by golly, that's what the local papers are going to report.

I'm a little more "cynical" than the local writers, so I tend to want more answers beyond just taking Lincoln and companies word for it.

The first thing that jumps out at you when you read the PFD reports from prior years is how little actual information they contain. Is there a special report posted elsewhere that actually contains real data, because the pdf snapshots they have on the site offer so little detail as to be completely useless. For example, it would be impossible to know the Mariners claimed to make $17.8 million in 2007 by looking at the PFD annual report. As explained in the PI, this number is calculated by a "special" formula. Why then can't the PFD more clearly explain this in the final report? Can't they produce a report that is actually readable and relevent? I guess not.

Just look at the breakdown of the agreed upon profit determiner: (how can you not laugh)

Input A= Number the team claims they made or lost for a given year
Input B= The claimed Depreciation/Amoritization of assets
Input C= Player signing bonuses (!??)
Input D= Capital Expenditures on ballpark (i.e. ballpark expenses)

A + B - C - D= Yearly Total Profit

Just look at how absurd this formula is. The Mariners are telling you for Input A, they lost $4.5 million in 2008. This is what a reader of the PI sees in the morning = "Mariners report losing $4.5 million in '08"

Except this number doesn't include all money they pay to players in 2008! When they sign a player like Ichiro to a new contract, often times a signing bonus is involved. (Same thing for draft picks- Josh Fields would be a perfect example when the team paid $1.75 million to bring him to camp.)

You can already see how to the common person the reported number is getting fishy as shit. The Mariners are telling you they lost $4.5 million last year, yet the simplest glance at the figure reveals even simple, annual expenses like signing draft picks are not even calculated when reaching the number.

What about normal upkeep like refreshed paint, carpet, changing the giant poster of Willie Ballgame out front etc... Most reasonable people would expect the Mariners to incur real, legitimate upkeep expenses for keeping Safeco open. Just like a homeowner who needs to replace a door knob or paint the house, this is a perfectly reasonable expense the Mariners are paying, so surely this is part of the debt that led to $4.5 million in losses, right?

Nope- The Mariners are reporting $4.5 million in losses and this number does NOT count for things like money out of pocket for keeping up Safeco.

This is where the dirty little secret is hiding, you just need to read beyond the headlines. Here is what the team is claiming-

2008 Mariner income: -$4.5 million
2008 Signing bonuses: $14.6 million
2008 Safeco capital expenditures: $2.5 million

That is $21.6 million the Mariners are claiming they lost last year by playing the full season, signing players and draft picks and keeping Safeco clean and beautiful. Yet in the end, they actually end up with a $1.9 million profit for 2008. Not what the head lines read, not what the Mariners want you to believe, but thanks to that little old depreciation calculation the team is actually doing just fine.

Here is a real world example of how the Mariners play games with our money. Say you have a friend who has a great job and makes good money- $100,000/yr

He's single, has no debt and at the end of the year he tells you he is broke and lost money last year. Puzzled by this, given he still has a good income you ask how he became broke.

Simple, he says- I started the year with $4,000 in my bank account, but at the end I only had $3,000. Therefore, I lost $1,000 working last year.

You then ask him if he has a 401k he contributes to every month. Yep.
Didn't he buy a new car with cash? Yep
Didn't he put in a new bathroom that will make the value of his house rise? Yep
Doesn't he declare his mortgage interest on his taxes and expects a big refund this year? Yep

So in this example, our sample friends net worth might have risen by $20,000 during the year. Yet by focusing purely on one number (bank account statement) he can claim he lost money. It's a total bullshit, wouldn't pass muster in any Accounting 101 class, but if it makes him feel better or worse so be it.

The Mariners are doing the same thing to the public. They are not outright lying when they say they lost $4.5 million in 2008. Not in a legal sense. They are creating a very arbitrary view of how they define profit or loss, and it's not until the PFD applies even basic accounting principles that we see the Mariners did, in fact actually make a profit last year.

For 2009, the Mariners are cutting the team budget by $20 million. If attendence stays reasonable close to last year, they will do just fine.

Count on them making money in 2009, but don't count on any remaining papers from truthfully reporting it in 2010, at least from the headlines.

2009-03-09T13:05:00.001-07:00

Beltre to the Yankees?

With A-Rod out of the lineup for at least 35 games, you know the Beltre-to-Yanks rumors are going to heat up. Beltre is in the last year of his contract and the Mariners are coming off a 101 loss season. The #2 pick in June is not going to restock the system alone, and it would seem unlikely Beltre resigns with this team during the off season. (All it takes is one team to offer him a crazy contract and the Mariners lose Beltre for some comp picks in 2010 if you favor the wait and see aproach- no thanks.)

The smart move is to shop Beltre at the trade deadline and at least see what he brings.

But shouldn't you call the Yanks and see if there is interest right now? What would you expect for Beltre if the Yankees are interested?

How about Austin Jackson for Beltre straight up? The Mariners lose their starting 3rd basemen but get a CF of the future in return? Perhaps Brackman and Melancon to restock the system with pitching talent? I would expect at least one top three pick of their system with some lower level guys with potential to make it worth Jack's time.

At least call the Yankees and see if they are interested, don't wait by the phone or listen to internet rumors. The pressure on the Yankees to win now in the most competitive division in baseball is enourmous. The Mariners have exactly what the Yankees need to keep up with Boston and Tampa, and Beltre is unlikely to be a part of this teams future.

Call Jack- you know what the Mariners need better than anyone. This is one rumor I hope becomes reality.

2009-03-09T11:26:00.000-07:00

Strasburg hype

Every baseball fan who follows the Mariners at all online knew of Strasburg last year. He was the front runner to be the #1 pick this June, and early indications are doing nothing from stopping those expectations. It will be crazy to expect the Nationals to pass on him barring any serious injury this spring.

Which serves as a friendly reminder of just how stupid our front office was last year. Consider-

Refusing to lend any credence to non-espn, non-local-beat-writer analysts who predicted the team was not actually that close to competing for the playoffs and had serious roster construction issues
Supported trading away half the farm system for Bedard, then acting surprised he actually isn't all that likable while publicly declaring him our "#1"
Fired the manager and GM when they realized what everyone else had known for years (neither is qualified for the jobs they were in)
Signed Johjima to a ridiculous extension, thereby ironically worsening the clubhouse atmosphere they foolishly over value
Went along with an insane plan to avoid 100 losses at all costs (who would really care if the number was 98, 101, 105... years later we all argued in vain)
Nixed the Washburn trade
Cut the 2009 budget 20%

We could go on, but let's just say it was a ROUGH year for Chuck Armstrong and Howard Lincoln. If they were in any industry other than baseball with it's non-competitive market, the Mariners would be out of business in this economy by now. The only smart thing they did was in hiring our new GM.

Of all the stupid decisions last year, I doubt playing for double digit losses really stood out for Chuck and company when the season ended. I doubt Chuck and Howard stood on Safeco after the series sweep of Oakland and realized just what damage had been done.

They made the decision to "play hard" and give the fans their moneys worth and it will very likely bite them in the ass. Good CEO's have to make smart, and often hard decisions. The decision to not retain the #1 pick is going to look really foolish if Strasburg continues to pitch like many expect him too.

Fans knew there was a Lebron James like figure coming to a franchise this June. There is always risk with pitchers, but that works both ways. With risk comes reward.

Lincoln and Armstrong either knew the risk last summer and didn't care, or weren't even clued in to the game enough to know about a player 99% of online fans have been following. Either way, it further supports the idea the Mariners management made a series of collosal mistakes before the hiring of Jack Zduriencik.

And a pitcher from California is doing every thing he can to not let us forget it.

2009-03-06T11:11:00.000-08:00

Sweeney stupidity

It's hard to be a sports fan in Seattle and not be subjected to KJR. Whether it's Stark from ESPN, Krueger etc... there is no way you want to miss these interviews but at the same time you cringe at some of the drivel that comes out.

We've all heard the local media overplay the subject of veteran leadership and how clubhouse tension doomed last years team. The reality of course is lack of talent is what caused the team to suck last year. Period. Does the media like to mention players like Sexson and Vidro are no where to be found this year? (It's not a common theme, and IMO should be mentioned far more prominently then it has.)

No, instead they focus on "moving the runners along" and "playing the game the right way."

Which leads me to Mike Sweeney.

The odds he makes this team should be low. He's old, he's been injured and been ineffective. Not a good combination for a team rebuilding. Probably the biggest roadblock would appear to be the Griffey signing. Suddenly the team need for "veteran leadership" appears to be filled.

But if you listen to some members of the media, you'd get the impression the Mariners almost HAVE to keep Sweeney on the team. A calming influence, a veteran leader, a solid citizen... install overused cliche at your leisure.

The single overriding skill the team should be focusing on for Mike Sweeney is can he hit. Does he have the skills to make this team win ball games WHILE ON THE FIELD. That should make up 99% of the decision making process. You can immediately identify the media hacks who begin with the other stuff first when talking about Sweeney, as if the hitting component is a bonus.

I don't have anything against Sweeney, and if he can fill in a short term gap so be it. But if he does make the team, it's probably a reflection of just how little talent stood before him. And that's a much bigger problem than lack of leadership in the clubhouse.

2009-03-02T14:59:00.000-08:00

Griffey and the DH position

We know it's best if Griffey DH's. We know Griffey doesn't want to DH, and doesn't hide his desire to play the field as much as possible.

What's a first time manager and GM to do?

Cave in and let him play the field more than he should. The team will use every iced knee, every long plane ride it can to put him in the DH spot, but every press conference, every post-game analysis will include the topic of Griffey and LF. Two opposing positions, one inevitable outcome.

I wish I had more faith in the new regime, but honestly I think they have to bite the bullet and play to pander the fans and try to buy time. They'll put Griffey in the field more than he should and eventually he'll get hurt.

It's not being negative, it's just being realistic. Griffey should play the field no more than once a week. Griffey will play the field 3+ time a week and he won't make it through the season without breaking down. It's as obvious as the sun coming up.

2009-02-25T12:01:00.000-08:00

Let players play

Will Beltre play in the WBC? That seems to be the local story now that Griffey is settling in. The question really though is why is it even a story?

If you accept the Mariners are not going to be good this year (not my opinion but just play along) then Beltre is gone by mid year anyway. Going in to the last year of his contract, the team will trade him to get something in return when contract negotiations prove fruitless. If this happens, does anyone really care if he plays in the WBC or not? Hard to see how his value in really impacted significantly either way.

If the Mariners are better than expected and in the hunt say mid year, then you do back flips if you are the front office and just leave this scenario alone. No reason to over think anything here.

The only argument left is this silly idea that maybe the Mariners will be good, or maybe they won't. And it really depends on Beltre being a team player and fitting in with his teammates.

This is where the horse shit piles up fast.

We already know Beltre is more of the quiet leader type. He comes in, does his job and leaves the ballpark. He doesn't bark at Silva for being fat, and he doesn't get in Ichiro's face for being Japanese. He is what he is.

Why then does the Mariner FO want to make something more of this then necessary? He's not going to Brazil to play in a giant bathtub of drug needles. He's going to play in a tournament where acccess to doctors and trainers will be available 100% of the time. He's playing in a contract year... he's not going to risk injuring himself by playing baseball with a different jersey on his chest any more so then he would in a Mariner environment. He's playing a game.

Mariner management has made some questionable decisions the past few years. They traded for Bedard and gave half the farm system while doing so only to realize they can't stand the guy 20 seconds after he hit the Arizona desert. (its called homework people) They had one manager quit mid season, then hired an incompetent replacement who lasted less than a year on the job. They also signed the aging catcher to a ridiculous contract pissing off the rest of the team for the obvious favoritism.

The front office should be supportive, not doing forced "we're a team" drills. If you want to be the cool boss, you got to be cool yourself. Telling players they shouldn't play for their country sends the wrong message.

This is a dumb move trying to tell Beltre he shouldn't play for his country. The negatives far outweigh the positives. Jack needs to update his spreadsheet.

2009-02-20T15:22:00.001-08:00

Still hard to believe so many tickets for Griffey

When figuring out the "cost" of acquiring Griffey, I'm sure the team ran the numbers to see how much impact on the bottom line he actually has. What we as fans don't know is how much revenue is tied to an additional ticket purchased for Junior. Incremental revenue if you will.

Is it ten bucks a ticket the team realizes in the profit ledger? Twenty, fifty? Who knows.

But I guarantee you the team knows. Parking, beers, food etc... all of this helps the teams finances, and there is no doubt it will be helped now that Griffey is coming. Since the team reports its finances to the county ever year, we may just know how much he contributed down the road.

Still, I sit in wonderment at fans who are purchasing tickets solely to Griffey's arrival. If its opening night you can be guaranteed barring injury he's in the game, but after that?

Who's to say Griffey will actually be playing a particular game down the road? We don't know the pitcher, the lineup, the health... so many variables to whether he plays or not. Are we going to hear sob stories from fans on TV who complain to the camera the only reason they came to the park was to see Griffey and how disappointed they are he isn't playing?

I'd say count on it. I will say this also puts huge pressure on the manager to keep him in the lineup as much as possible. (Which, ironically may in the end increase the odds he misses significant time.)

The best case for fans who are buying tickets to see Griffey is for him to remain healthy and productive. It would seem to be in everyones best interests for it to happen, even if you came to see the other 24 Mariners play too...

2009-02-19T11:54:00.000-08:00

If Armstrong is happy...

So the Kid is coming back and Mariner fans are going crazy. I'm certainly not going to wonder how the Clements and Wlad's of the world are going to get their at bats when we have a 39 year old fan favorite on the team. That's for Don and staff to figure out.

But anyway, I'm sure people will understand when they come to the ballpark and Griffey isn't playing that day because a lefty is on the mound, right? Fans understand these things.

And I'm sure they won't be disappointed when they buy tickets and realize Griffey isn't playing that day because his hamstring/shoulder/knee/elbow/back is sore and needs to be rested, right? Fans understand these things.

And if Griffey struggles and the power really is gone, people will understand when the Mariners relegate him to bench duty, because fans understand.

Chuck Armstrong is happy today. And the more happy Chuck is, the more happy us fans should be, right?

2009-02-17T12:36:00.000-08:00

Sure feels like Griffey is spurning Seattle again

And can he drag this out any longer? I personally hope he takes Atlanta's offer but regardless I want this resolved so the nonsense over his return ends.

If anyone sees Jack popping a bottle of champagne tonight we'll know Griffey is a Brave.

2009-02-13T12:11:00.000-08:00

Kudos to Baker on morning show

Some of you might have caught Geoff this morning with Mitch on KJR. I have to say, I was really impressed with what they both talked about.

Griffey.

Now the topic is to be expected, but the way Geoff described the player and the situation surrounding him was simply fantastic. In the past, we would have heard some feel good story about the aging slugger returning to bring glory to the falling franchise. Not this time. There were a number of directions this conversation could have headed, and Baker didn't stray once:
1) He clearly stated Griffey has no where else to go. It's important to remind casual fans just how far Griffey has fallen. We are not GETTING junior. We are settling for junior.
2) Attendance. Mitch asked Geoff about the big bump in attendance we'll expect to see, and the common claim we hear from Griffey fawners who say he'll more than pay for his contract in ticket sales. Again he nails it. He cites past experiences with other returning players and the data simply doesn't support this attendance bull shit. Sure we'll see a swell of enthusiasm but it will quickly dissipate. Smack down point number two, and we heard references to actual data, not head-up-my-ass type analysis we might have gotten in the past.
3) Use of Griffey- Geoff doesn't mince words regarding playing time. There as no talk about a crowded outfield or his defense in left. The audience heard the beat writer explain very clearly what he is being brought in for- platoon DH, nothing more.
4) Role on team- Again, Geoff explains the returning hero is not going to be here three years from now. If the team needs to sit Griffey to get more at bats for Clement, Wlad or whatever as the season goes on, Junior need to understand it now. This isn't about Griffey, this is what's good for the team.
5) Pay- Geoff explains he really should be making a million or two at the MOST. Anything more and the team is throwing money away (see point 1).
6) Budget- Geoff really earns his pay here. Mitch wanted to know how we got here, and Geoff immediately launched in to the Washburn situation and how Jack's hands are really tied in terms of ownership and past decisions. We got here because Armstrong made it happen by cutting the budget and nixing player moves like Washburn to the Twins. It wasn't the answer Mitch was expecting, but it was the right response and Baker really put it all together for the listener. Griffey is joining the Mariners because Jarrod Washburn is a Mariner. Not what some might have thought, but it's true.

It may seem silly to say good job to the beat writer, especially one as popular as Geoff Baker. But after disagreeing with him so often on McLaren, Bedard, Adam Jones, Bavasi, defense, home runs etc... it's refreshing to hear him absolutely nail the Griffey situation. Very few fans bother with blogs or forums during the off season, and people like Baker is where they get their news.

Would the average KJR listener have heard this from Finnegan or Hickey back in the day? No way. Keep up the great reporting Geoff.

2009-02-12T13:49:00.000-08:00

Why budget matters

One of the many infuriating comments made by some fans over the years is about money and the Mariners. When the team would sign someone like Silva or Batista for too many years and too many dollars, the common response was so what. The thinking goes the Mariners make plenty of money and frankly, who cares if they overspend because money has never been the problem for them. (this was their argument, not mine)

Essentially the thinking is- Oakland is a small market team and money matters, but not for a big spender like the Mariners.

Of course this was stupid thinking then, just as it today. And we have no better evidence of this then Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu.

Both expected to make upwards of $60 million each during the offseason. Instead, they made less than half combined. With the change in market pricing and general belt tightening due to the economy plus a change in defensive value, both saw their market fall to seemingly bargain pricing.

Most fans would have liked to see one of them in a Mariners uniform. But guess what?

With no room in the budget, the new GM had no real chance to add a player like an Abreu. Why?

Because the Mariners made stupid moves in the past that prevented them from carving room out of the budget. The Mariners, like most teams in the majors, set a budget for their GM. This means when they run out of money for the year, they are done wheeling and dealing. If they want to add a player, they need to subtract something to make room for it. The myth that the Mariners have some huge slush fund that can be used at any time to add a player like Abreu is simply untrue. The Mariners goal is to make as much money as possible while still fielding a decent team so they can pay off their debt from Safeco overruns. Until that debt is paid, the team has shown no interest in even breaking even.

Every year since Safeco has been open, the team has made a profit. Again, every year the Mariners play baseball, they take in more money then they invest on the field. Could the Mariners have kept their payroll at $117 million and given Jack the flexibility to add Abreu or even a Manny if he wanted? Sure. But they won't.

Why did they spend more last year? What is because the team was making a huge push towards the playoffs and was willing to lose money to do it? No, as we've covered before the Mariners received a one time payment of roughly $20 million from the sale of the Nationals. They didn't get an additional payment this year, and guess what... the payroll is down 20%. What a shocker.

So the next time some casual fan says "So what.. they overpaid but the Mariners aren't a small market team like Oakland so money doesn't really matter" just punch them in mouth.

They deserve a lesson in economic reality.

2009-02-11T14:33:00.000-08:00

Union solely responsible for 'roids mess

While the world ponders a future where many of the top baseball players of recent generation do not make the hall of fame (gasp) there's no reason to question where the blame lies.

That's squarely with the players union.

I wrote passionately years ago the job of the players union is to protect its players. Protect them from bad contracts, unsafe working conditions, you name it... the job is to protect. Yet when the issue of protecting its members from feeling the pressure to take performance enhancing drugs came along the union looked the other way. Why should our members be treated any different, they mused over expense account lunch martinis...

Well, Fehr and company you have your answer. If you can't figure out what "protect" means then quite frankly you're not qualified to have a job. The only reason the union agreed to the "secret" testing was because it didn't have the brain power to realize what a problem it actually was. When the results where finally available, only slowly did the powers that run the players union understand the significance of what they had on their hands.

Can you imagine the gasps that had to have occurred when the list revealed Alex Rodriguez is a steroid user? The highest paid player in the world, the highest paid player in the history of sports contracts was using illegal drugs.

The union did not provide an environment where its members felt everyone was on the same field, so to speak. The union could not maintain the secrecy it promised its members when it agreed to the 2003 testing.

The union screwed up big time, and if there was any accountability they would all be shown the door.

Not likely to happen, but it should.

2009-01-28T10:21:00.000-08:00

Thumbs up on the Cedeno trade

Part of the problem I had with the Mariners this coming season involved the infield. Woefully short of backup talent, there did not seem to be much of a backup plan for the middle infield if anything were to happen (either due to injury or ineffectiveness).

Pretend for a second Yuni pulls his hamstring in spring training. Who is your replacement?

Years past, it would be Willie Bloomquist. (cough, cough)

Fortunately we don't have to live in that world anymore.

Now we have an answer- Ronny Cedeno. Not only is he a backup in case of injury, you now have a 26 year old player hanging around which just might send a subtle message to both Yuni and Lopez. Our new GM took something we didn't need (more starters) and got back something we desperately needed (infield depth).

When you realize we didn't just get Cedeno, but actually get a pitcher too (Olson) this makes it a no brainer win for Zduriencik and team.

2009-01-20T12:53:00.000-08:00

Hope this isn't it

So far I've been really happy with everything Zduriencik has done. He's made smart baseball decisions and I'm taking the winter off with the expectation of watching a fun, exciting team come spring training.

But as we get closer, I'm getting a little worried. I've liked all the trades and player moves he's made, but always assuming more are coming. Every day I wake up expecting to hear Yuni has been traded, or Lopez is gone or Johjima is FedEx'd to Japan or something...

If the team we have today is the one that takes the field on openign day, I'll be really, really disappointed. I know Jack has to cut the budget and completely revamp the Front Office, but still... I want to see a good bat come to this lineup, and no I'm not talking about Griffey.

Jack, please make this team better.

2009-01-08T09:34:00.000-08:00

Payroll and the Nationals

The word is apparently out the Mariners want to cut payroll by 20%. Last year payroll went up roughly 20%. Last year the Mariners received a one-time payment of $20 million from the sale of the Nationals.

Coincidence?

The Mariners have never been one of the top spending teams in baseball. The team has always tried to pretend it was to the casual fan, but it's not even the top spending team in its division (Angels) much less baseball.

When the season starts, take a gander at the Athletics payroll and the Mariners. You'll see the difference is far smaller than one might think given how Beane and the A's are always mentioned as a small market team.

Our ownership group is more concerned about paying down the debt on Safeco then they are about winning. Period. They don't understand the best way to make the debt seem insignificant is to build a winning team and watch the overall value grow. Wonder why the Angels are able to spend more per year than the Mariners?

Competent ownership. The 2009 Mariners will have a payroll a little above average despite the sweetheart stadium deal and sun worshiping fans who watched a terrible team the past 5 years.

Good luck Z. We understand you're working for a boss who nixed the Washburn trade and now tells you to cut payroll 20%. Not exactly the Yankees formula for winning, is it?

2008-12-12T12:57:00.000-08:00

Raul gone

Thank goodness we don't have to hear people gush over Mr. Professional anymore. The guy Lou couldn't find playing time for and who quietly left for KC before finding success is now back in the NL.

A 36 year old who already can't play defense is going to the NL on a 3 year deal!

(I had to type it because it just doesn't seem real reading it.)

Seriously, this is one of the dumber contracts we'll see this year. Imagine if Griffey signs a 3 year deal with a NL club. Not going to happen, but its about as logical as having Raul play the field for the next 3 years.

Raul is coming off a really nice season offensively, on a really bad team that played for nothing except possibly avoiding 100 losses (which they didn't). However, his defense is terrible, as most upper-30's guys experience. He is the poster child for the AL. Too old to play the field, but has a decent bat.

Put him at DH, maybe play the field in a pinch. Instead he goes to the NL where they can't hide his glove. Did we also mention he can't hit lefties?

So let's summarize. The defending WS champs signed a guy who can't play defense, can't hit lefties and will be 39 before its over. He can't steal bases, has a weak arm and is going to a team that really needed a right-handed bat to balance the lineup.

My prediction. Raul never sees that 3rd year in a Phillies uniform. He'll get traded to the AL before his 3 years are up, where he belongs.

I like Raul and wish him all the best. But players need to be in the right situation to be successful. Raul belongs on an AL club, not Philadelphia. This may not end well at all. Let's see if Phillie fans get their money's worth (they'll have no problem telling you if they don't)!

2008-12-11T09:43:00.001-08:00

Quick thoughts on trade

We finally have a major move to judge Zduriencik and the early signs are incredibly promising:

He realizes 100 loss teams don't need to worry about their closer, and sells high. Sounds simple, but not every team believes this no matter how obvious.
He saw the same thing I saw with JJ. A guy who put an incredible 2007 together that frankly is something we should never expect to see again. JJ far exceeded what we ever could have expected to get from him as a closer, and he sells a year early instead of a year too late. Combined with the injury and declining fastball, he gets rid of Putz at the right time.
The importance of defense. This is the biggest story by far in the trade. Instead of the old way of looking at baseball-card stats and ignoring defense, we have a real GM. Would the Mariners of the past 8 years ever make this trade? No way. We have real GM. Let that sink in.
He assembles talent, and let's his manager and staff provide input on how they will make it work. Rather than say "Player X is our new left fielder" he understands words like "platoon" or "earn" are not bad. If Wlad wants to play in the outfield, he needs to show he belongs. This is light years ahead of last year when Bedard is suddenly announced as the opening day starter before spring training begins. Players will have to perform and I love to hear that. A far cry from what we've seen the previous years under Hargrove and Bavasi.

Way to go Jack. I know you're not done, and I hope you don't screw up the Morrow situation.

Sign Fields.

Keep Morrow in the rotation, sending him to AAA if you have too.

Find some more baseball players and tell me Yuni is no longer our opening day SS and I'm ready for opening day.

2008-12-03T14:45:00.000-08:00

Simple test

If you think the Russell Branyan signing is bad, you probably wish the M's signed Griffey instead.

Which means you're:

Not capable of making baseball decisions based on logic
A casual fan who doesn't really care if the team wins
An idiot

Most will fall in some combination of the three.

The first player signing by Jack and he gets a healthy round of applause. Picks up a useful bat for little money on a likely one-year deal. If you think Branyan is simply a new version of Brad Wilkerson, you need to take the test again.

2008-12-01T13:08:00.000-08:00

And just like that...

The M's offer arbitration to Raul.

It was an easy decision, but after the Guillen debacle still gave reason for concern.

Further proof this Jack guy might be all right...

2008-12-01T12:34:00.000-08:00

Surely they offer arbitration to Raul ,right?

How could they possibly spin this if they don't? We don't even offer arbitration to our best hitter because we are afraid he might want to come back? For ONE YEAR?

There is literally zero chance of having a doomsday scenario where the M's get burned. In the unlikely event he accepts, you get your new DH on a one year contract who can be traded at the deadline in a heartbeat

In the event he signs elsewhere, you get draft picks.

An early test for Jack, and would raise immediate concerns if he blows it.

2008-11-19T10:12:00.000-08:00

Thank goodness we have a new manager

And it's not Joey Cora. No offense to Cora, who may turn out to be a great manager, but hiring a guy because he used to play for you when you were good and casual fans remember the name is no way to win games.

I wasn't super excited when Zduriencik was hired but was willing to give him a chance. So far he has exceeded expectations.

He's cleaned house.
He's acknowledged publicly the farm system above A ball is weak.
He's starting a stats department.
He resisted the urge to hire the guy his bosses wanted and made the correct baseball decision.

So far the JZ era is off to a good start. Hopefully we see some player moves shortly that confirm our new GM actually knows what he's talking about.

2008-10-28T09:54:00.000-07:00

Bob Fontaine gone

Like many of you, I woke up this morning and read Larry Stone's article on Fontaine being dismissed.

My initial feeling.

Good news.

I know this goes against the grain, but hardcare fans have all agreed the only way the Mariners get back on the winning track is a complete overhaul. The Mariners are not one GM away from the playoffs. They need a fundamental process overhaul... they way players are scouted, trained, evaluated, drafted, managed.... you name it, they aren't doing it correctly.

So if Zduriencik is going to be successful, he needs people around him he trusts. He needs his support, so he's not the lone figure trying to steer the ship.

The counter argument to this is why Fontaine. Some feel Fontaine is one of the good guys, the few bright spots, the guys who should be retained and you replace all the other bums.

But is Fontaine that great?

I've never really seen it. Smarter people than me tell me his drafts are excellent. I have deferred to their opinion consistently, but looking back I more often then not have been critical.

Fields as a number one? Terrible idea. No idea who selected it, but I argued at the time this was a monumentally bad pick and Fontaine was in charge.

Morrow pick? He looks like a solid pick, but you can't ignore the team picked the oft-injured guy with upside over the local boy who is likely to win a Cy Young this season. Not to mention they passed on Miller. Not Fontaine's fault you say? So I guess everything is on Bavasi, or does Fontaine deserve any second guessing here?

Clement? Clear draft choice based on need, not best athlete.

We could go on.

If you look over the draft, while there are some misses he also found players like Lowe. So like every scout, he has some questionable picks and some great picks. So how do we weight them and decide if he was part of the solution or the problem? The answer to me is pretty clear. Fontaine has some impressive selections on his resume, but along the way he has some head scratchers as well. If the worst team in baseball selects a reliever in the first round, somethings wrong. And to argue Fontaine had nothing to do with it is difficult to believe.

I guess I'm ok with a few good guys getting shown the door if it fixes this team. If Fontaine is so good, he'll have little trouble finding work and our new GM is supposed to be a great talent evaluator.

I hope more changes are coming.

2008-10-27T10:03:00.000-07:00

Moyer unbelievable

I thought the Rays were the better team, and until last night we saw incredibly close and exciting games being played. Watching Jamie on Saturday, he was simply unbelievable.

All of his pitches were on the edge of the strike zone, and you could feel the frustration through the TV on the part of the Rays batters. He left nothing over the plate, his command was perfect and he was the Moyer we wanted to see- baffling major league hitters with 78mph strikes.

I wanted the Rays to win, expected them to win, but wanted to see Moyer do well. I got to see the second part on Saturday. Is a win tonight too much to ask?

I'm not ready for this season to be over, even with the dreck we watched at Safeco all summer.

A win gives us a shot at a 7th game. THAT would be a nice way to end the season, even though it looks very unlikely at this point.

2008-10-24T09:33:00.000-07:00

Phillies and the media

I've already written it's pretty hard to not consider the Rays the prohibitive favorite to win the Series. Of course I add it would hardly be shocking if Philadelphia wins, as the nature of sports is part unpredictability, but the Rays are still the best team from the best league with home field advantage when we started. It's their Series to lose.

But of course the media doesn't like to deal with reality, when instead cliches are so much more fun. Instead of writing "Phillies wrestle home field advantage from AL champs" or "Surprising Phillies play tough in Series" we get something like:

The Phillies, Suddenly Futile -- NYT
or
Phils suffer from poor RISP management -- espn
or
Phillies are the definition of a tight ballclub -- The Philadelphia Enquirer

The underdog team has played the 97 win AL East champions in two games scoring 5 runs while giving up 6 on the road. They have the best starting pitcher (Hamels) available for two more games, and have home field advantage.

But instead, we hear about all the negative play the Phillies have shown in splitting the Series. Why?

Because to the vast majority of sports writers, the Phillies are the experienced team losing the series, as opposed to the more talented Rays winning. It's easier to focus on the lack of timely hitting by the Phillies than to admit the Tampa club is more than "plucky" or "happy to be here" or "we sure never saw this Tampa club as this good"

East coast bias? Veteran team bias? Hatred for anything Florida after the election fiasco?

Who knows. But I can certainly say something is wrong. The media and fans who picked Philadelphia should be incredibly happy... the team was a hit or two away from having a commanding 2-0 lead and still has home field advantage.

But listening to most writers who should know better, the Phillies are the choking team who put all those base runners on board but had the audacity to let the Rays win a game.

I say let's enjoy the Series and keep things in perspective. The Rays should win, the Phillies might win and have put themselves in a great position after two games. To argue otherwise says more about the writer than what goes on the field.

2008-10-22T12:59:00.000-07:00

Not impressed, but willing to keep open mind

First instinct when hearing Jack Zduriencik is our new GM?

Disappointment.

Let's see, by the time this thing turns around we'll have a 60 year old GM who hopefully has learned enough on the job to actually make a World Series appearence not seem like a joke. Is that the plan?

Sorry to make a big deal about the age, but I want someone who understands computers. I don't want a McCain, I want a 21st Century GM.

Now of course the counterargument is to have our new GM surround himself with young whippersnappers who understand how to build a world class repository of baseball data. There is nothing to suggest that won't happen.

But why beyond hope (like the Phillies thing) would we actually think this WILL happen? What evidence do we have that Zduriencik even acknowledges he has a weakness in the area? He just won a job presumably on his strengths, and this is his first job as GM. Pretty hard to imagine he went in to the interview and said "look, I don't know FIP from F/X but I'm going to find someone who does and we'll work together to rebuild this team."

We have a scouting director who has never been a GM as our new hope. A guy who will learn on the job, with Lincoln and Chuck as his guides. (Oh, and Lee lurking in the background.)

I'm willing to keep an open mind and judge him on his actions, not my fears. Hopefully he comes out, connects with the community and makes our team better. He is certainly better than Bavasi.

But I have to say, right now I'm underwhelmed by the announcement.

2008-10-22T12:29:00.000-07:00

Rays should win

Watching various baseball shows on TV and of course reading lots of articles on the series, there seems to be plenty of people picking the Phillies. Certainly no one is dissing the Rays in doing so, but rarely do you see the Phillies folks acknowledge the Rays are the favorites and the Phillies pick is purely emotional.

Consider:

The Phillies have made the playoffs the past two seasons as much because of the Mets collapse as anything else.
They played Milwaukee in the first round (nuff said).
They played LA in the second, "winner" of the weakest division in baseball. (The Dodgers would not have made the playoffs based on W-L record in any other division.)
The NL is universally agreed upon as the inferior league (almost no one has argued in any coherent fashion otherwise for years).
The Rays have home field advantage.

So to wrap up, we have the Rays winning the toughest division in baseball and beating last years champions in the process of getting to the WS. They consistently have played the best baseball of anyone all year, they have strong pitching, defense, balanced attack and well regarded managers, not to mention a bullpen that is top notch and has this guy named "Price" or something.

In other words, Tampa is good. Really good. And yet some people who aren't actual Phillies fans are picking Philadelphia to win. Doesn't make sense?

We all understand anything can happen in a 7 game series. If Jeff Weaver and the 83 win Cardinals can with the WS, ANYTHING can happen. No one is arguing otherwise. I would not be the least bit shocked if Philadelphia did win.

But if you had to put your money down, and made the bet straight up, you'd be crazy to pick the Phillies. The Rays demonstrated over and over this year they are a really good team. The Phillies have nothing on their resume as impressive. You may want the Phillies to win. You may figure anything can happen and the Rays will lose, and that's fine. But to argue the Phillies are better and you expect them to win?

There is no evidence to suggest it.

The Rays have confounded the "experts" all year. No matter that many people warned the Rays were going to be much better this year than expected. (The people who pick the Phillies are generally people who don't read or listen to those same people who predicted the rise of the Rays.)

The only thing that will get certain peoples attention is Tampa winning this series. I hope they do.

Sorry Jamie. But sometimes it's better to have the best team win.

2008-10-20T10:20:00.000-07:00

Tampa Bay can play

My daughter used to say "Tampa Bay can't play" all the time, but with the Bucs having already won a Super Bowl and the Rays getting to the WS I think it's safe to say "Seattle can't play."

I'll be rooting for the Rays, and would like to take a minute to ask all the traditional baseball types to pause and reflect on what they saw- a young, talented team beating "experience" and "veterans" and every other tired cliche you can think of.

Remember when some analysts opined the Rays made a mistake by not trading for a veteran bullpen arm? What did they think when Price closed out the game?

It's human nature to try and cherry pick stats. I ask all the "traditional" minded baseball fans to remember this series the next time an argument is made that favors experience over talent. I'll take the talent every time.

So now we have Moyer versus the Rays. I hope Moyer pitches well in his start, but the Rays win in 5. I don' think it will be that easy, but I do expect the Rays to win the series.

____________

Now quickly on the M's GM search.

The team blew it.

I know that seems strong, but I really feel the team made a mistake in the hiring process. The list of candidates is hardly the worst you could put together, but let me ask you a simple question.

Would you rather have the selection pool be A or B:
A- The current final four list.
B- The list of people who rejected the teams interest.

Frankly, I'll take B every time. The list of people who declined included my personal favorite, Hoyer from the Sox. And here's why I think the team made a mistake in the process.

The team has decided to go in to the interview process completely open minded. Lincoln and company compiled a list and invited every one with an equal invitation. Come and explain how you would build this team, and we'll listen and pick the answer we like best.

Nothing wrong with that, some would say. But here's the problem with that approach.

It's not how execs like to be chosen.

The reality is politics and apperance play a huge role in job selection at the highest level. No rising exec wants to interview for a job and get turned down. Instead, they want their body of work to speak for itself. Those with the big egos and minds don't feel an interview should determine who gets a job. Instead, the interview process is just a meet and greet, more to do a final relationship and getting to know each other than actually pick a "winner."

Imagine you are a "hope to be GM" hot shot like Hoyer. You want the phone call conversation to be something like...

"Jed, we love the work you've done for the Red Sox. We've done our homework and think you've got what it takes to be the next GM for Seattle. We'd like to sit down with you and discuss the opportunity and get to know each other in the process. The jobs yours if you want it."

Instead, Howard and Chuck went with this...

"Jed, we have heard a lot of good things about your work with the Red Sox. We've already interviewed seven people for the job. Why don't you come in and make it number eight? If you do a good job, you might even make the short list, but be prepared! We are going to ask some tough questions in the interview process. We have not made any decisions but want to hear how you would go about turning this team around."

Is it a big suprise guys like Hoyer turned down the opportunity?

If you really, really want someone who have to go after it. If you wanted a Cashman, you need to quietly send the word no check is too big to make it happen. If you want Beane's right hand man, you go after him first. The interviews with the Ng's of the world who are just happy to have a shot can wait. You get the person you want, not wait to see who will show up for the interview.

The good news is the team will definitely end up with a better exec than Bavasi. It's the advantage of starting from absolute bottom. But I'm not all that impressed with the final four, and I think the M's made a classic mistake in the interview process.

2008-09-29T11:01:00.000-07:00

Mercifully over

You couldn't dream up a more fitting ending. Having not won a series all year, the team finally sweeps Oakland and loses the number one pick in the process. An absolutely fitting, frustrating end to this terrible season.

I have been a Mariner fan for 30 years, and an avid fan for at least the past 15. This season my interest in the team was at its lowest point certainly since '92. The Chuck and Howie program is getting old and I think we all agree the decision they make this winter will determine how much longer my interest stagnates.

Good news?

Well it looks like Bedard isn't injured as badly as first reported. And.... I'm having trouble coming up with anything else.

It will be a fun winter since we won't have McLaren and Bavasi around, so at least we have no where to go but up.

Ok, I'm feeling better already...

2008-09-18T12:44:00.000-07:00

Bedard done

With the news Eric Bedard will never pitch again for the Mariners, we can actually do two things:

Close the books on the trade
Identify people who refuse to learn

The first part is easy. Instead of hearing how we should wait until next year to see what a healthy Bedard can do for the Mariners, we can officially call the trade a complete, utter disaster. Whether you think a trade can only be evaluated by what we know at the time of the trade, or whether you think a trade can only be evaluated by results, the scorecard is complete. The Bedard for farm system trade will be remembered as one of the most lopsided trades in recent baseball history. Historically bad for the Mariners and historically in the context of all teams. It was that bad.

The second part is just as easy. We have reporters like Baker who took potshots at people who dared to criticize the trade over the winter who need to come out and set the record straight.

The question is not whether Baker owes anyone an apology. The question is can Baker learn? Can he admit that if a future trade similar to the Bedard-for-farm opportunity arises, will he listen to the Baker who argued so passionately over the winter that the trade was worth the risk? Or will he admit he might listen to the USS Mariner position a little more strongly next time?

It's okay to be wrong. We've all been wrong before about something. But it's not okay to refuse to learn anything.

That's just being an ass.

2008-09-16T12:22:00.000-07:00

Morrow reason to watch

Even as recently as two years ago, I would watch 150+ games a year either in person or on TV. Last year saw the number decline, and this year I'm sure will hit a low point that hasn't been seen since the early 90's.

Interim management, lousy team, not entertaining. It would be easier if young kids like Clement or Wlad were hitting, but they aren't and I could really care less if Cairo is in the lineup or not.

But Morrow is something else. He is the lone bright spot, along with Felix the only pitcher who can really claim to be part of the solution.

The Huskies suck. The Sonics are gone. The Seahawks are predictably on the decline (I never understood the optimism around the team going in to the season among fans.) We know about the Mariners.

Brandon Morrow. I thought he'd struggle as a starter this soon, but he is proving me wrong in a pleasant manner. A few more like him and I expect my game interest will return to normal.

2008-09-11T12:19:00.000-07:00

Mariners face an uphill battle

One of the key debates during the off season will revolve around how good this team might be next year. Even the new GM is going to have some tough nights trying to figure out if a complete tear down is in order. Much like the Bedard debate last year, the "how good-how bad" debate will have no clear answers until we begin play.

It is true the team has a core set of players who will allow them to fairly easily shake the title of worst-AL-team. With Felix, Morrow, Ichiro and Beltre among others, there is no reason this team can't be .500 next year with some intelligent roster management. This isn't 2003. There is some youth to build around, especially if Fields gets signed and is as good as advertised and the club dumps Washburn to gain payroll flexibility.

However, being a .500 team is not that special. I'm not going to run out and buy season tickets because a new GM is going to turn this club from laughingstock to forgettable. The problem for the M's is the division they play in:
Angels- much better team, better owner, better manager, better farm system, equal financial footing
Athletics- budget continues to increase year to year, about to move in to new stadium, smart GM and much improved farm system
Rangers- better farm system, smarter management team in place, awesome offense

Based on what is likely to happen over the off season, I'd have a hard time picking the M's any better than 3rd in the division. Both Texas and Oakland have much better farm systems and it's not like baseball is going to take a time out and let the M's catch up. Sure the M's will be better next year, but we can bet the other teams are going to be working to get better too. Ranger fans are thinking "if only we can get some pitching" and Oakland fans are thinking "some of these guys are going to be really good" this winter too.

It's too easy to just write in the Angels for the next 3 years as division winners, even though that is what very well could happen. We play sports because of the unpredictability. The Mariners MIGHT win the world series next year. The Huskies might win a game under Willingham that matters. You just never know.

But if we are being honest with ourselves, the Mariners face a pretty large hurdle in the off season. In many cases their opponents are better today, possess a deeper farm system and have smarter staffs.

The Mariner front office needs to really look in the mirror and understand they are far, far away from fielding a playoff caliber team and have some serious obstacles to over come if they want to win the West.

I'm not sure I disagree with the idea the team can be .500 next year. But I have a much harder time seeing this team actually competing for a playoff spot. In my eyes, that's a big difference and I don't see that problem going away any time soon.

2008-09-08T14:47:00.000-07:00

Add Morrow to list

I've been pretty skeptical on this blog regarding Morrow's effectiveness as a starter. I have always characterized his long term starter potential as "unknown" simply because of all the variables. And one fantastic start does not a career make.

But at least for September, in addition to King Felix day, we can now add Morrow to the list of days we can be excited about as Mariner fans.

Can Morrow continue to pitch 8+ innings in a start? Will he continue to throw 95+ in the later innings. Will his shoulder hold up?

Thank you Brandon Morrow for giving us one more reason to watch a baseball game.

2008-09-03T11:22:00.000-07:00

Silly Penny Pinching

While we watch the September callups get indifferent playing time, one name we won't see is Josh Fields.

Word is the team is not that far apart. The slot money the team wants to pay based on baseballs recommendation and what Boras wants is only $500k.

For a team that has the worst record in the AL, and spent $117 million doing it, is letting $500k worth making a statement about?

Let's review the timeline and justification for drafting Fields with the first pick:

Boras lets teams know he wants $2 million to sign
Fields is acknowledged before the draft as being very close to major league ready
Team is struggling with internal decision to move Morrow to rotation or leave in pen
Team drafts Fields even though it possesses worst record in baseball and has few position players in upper end of system
Team is ridiculed by many national media writers for drafting reliever in first round
Team refuses to meet Boras signing demands, instead preferring to toe the line with baseball guidelines

Drafting a reliever with a first round pick is stupid when you're team is terrible. Drafting a reliever in the first round and then refusing to sign the pick promptly, thereby negating the only advantage they possess (speed to majors) simply makes no sense.

We could be watching Fields in the majors right now. Instead he is on vacation while the worst team in the AL plays trying to avoid 100 losses.

2008-08-27T09:53:00.001-07:00

Twins killers

If the Twinkies miss out on the playoffs by a game, the past few are going to hurt in the offseason. The Mariners are playing a team trying real hard to win and are managing to not embarrass themselves in the process. Hopefully management can realize you can have it both ways- play the kids to see what your future looks like while at the same time putting a competitive team on the field. I just hope when September comes around they continue to give others playing time- we know what the veterans can do and have last place to show for it.

A real question mark going in to next season is of course Morrow. I have long expressed my skepticism that the transition will be smooth, as I feel he has never been given the time to develop as a starting pitcher and I don't think Tacoma is just about "stretching out his arm."

The ideal plan sees Morrow invited to spring training as a starter (with the bullpen completely out of the question) and see if he is really, truly ready to start. If the team has any reservations at all, send him back to AAA. Morrow won't like it, but he never should have been in the majors all this time anyway so just suck it up and get you act together. A few more months learning to see if you can be a starter will be put millions more in your back account over time, so let's keep the sob stories out of the paper as much as possible.

I see Morrow likely being ready to face Major League hitters and being effective in July of next year. The Mariners plan on calling him in up a few weeks. I expect September to be a little rough.

I hope Brandon proves me wrong.

2008-08-26T10:53:00.000-07:00

M's need to consider future in September

Last nights game featured a dramatic walk-off homer by Beltre, but I'm sure I'm not the only fan who thought about what it did to our chances of getting Steven Strasburg.

All fans who follow baseball have heard the name. He's probably not a franchise saving guy, and we all know the risks associated with young pitchers, but he has a chance to get fans excited in a way Ken Griffey version 2009 can never achieve.

So if you're the Mariners, you have a choice. Option One is to try to win every game and avoid the tag of 100 losses. It means little to most fans- but we know Howard and Chuck care more about this then any living, breathing person on the planet. Option Two is to tank games and hope to land Strasburg.

Is there something in between? Say play the kids, look towards the future and see what you have to build for next year?

Here's an example. Beltre is playing hurt. The team may consider trading him in the offseason. How about bringing Tui up and playing him at 3rd for an extended period in September. Accomplishes both goals of seeing what you have and possibly increasing your odds of landing Strasburg.

If you apply this strategy across the board in September, you'll actually increase the interest to fans like me who want to see the kids play while at the same time looking towards the future of the club. If you employ this strategy and actually win, well then that's the way the cards play out and you can't feel bad about it.

However, if the team plays veterans and tries to win every game in September, it will result in the worst outcome to everyone not named Chuck or Howard.

2008-08-25T10:47:00.000-07:00

Quality Starts and a lousy offense

Geoff Baker of the Times has made a point of calling out the number of quality starts the Mariner starters have made and how few result in a win. It's a topic that was hotly debated over the winter in combination with the Bedard deal and I think is helpful to bring up again today.

If we went back to last winter and looked at previous posts, there was the normal Baker/Bavasi vs. USS Mariner disparity when it came to previewing the M's.

On the USS Mariner side, serious concerns were raised regarding the teams offense and defense coming in to 2008. An expected decline in the teams ability to score combined with one of the worst defenses in baseball was going to make it extremely challenging for the teams pitchers to win games.

On the other hand, you had Geoff Baker write article after article explaining the offense would be very similar to 2007. The argument was losing Guillen was hardly earth shattering and there were multiple options should trouble arise. Everyone was else was coming back, and with a healthy Vidro adjusted to the AL the team was ready to make a run. As for the defense Geoff again countered he watched this team play game after game and didn't see many times when the defense was a significant factor.

Now fast forward to today and what do we have? A terrible offense behind a lousy defense and starting pitchers with losing records. Oh, and we have the quality start metric.

Quality starts is a lot like WHIP. With WHIP you take useful numbers like hits and walks and you combine them in warped way useful to fantasy owners. Are hits a useful stat? Of course. How about walks and innings pitched? Yep, extremely useful. What do you get when you combine them? Not much.

Quality starts is the same thing. You take an artificial snapshot on a pitchers performance and then try to make conclusions from it. If a pitcher is good, they will pitch longer in games then less effective ones and will likely win more games doing it.

But it's not a tool you would ever use if you were building a team. It's just a fun made up stat. And what does it tell us about the Mariners?

It tells us if you take a really good pitcher and have him throw for the Mariners, he's going to lose a lot of games. Because the Mariners can't hit and can't defend. They are one of the three worst teams in baseball, and we don't quality start metrics to tell us that.

If you mention quality starts, you are probably someone who still believes pitching wins championships. It's not that simple, and the evidence is overwhelming.

2008-08-20T09:44:00.000-07:00

At least we're not Mariners fans, right?

The always excellent Replacement Level Yankees web site has a list of the AL LVP rankings.

To no ones surprise, the list is a little... how shall we say... Mariner heavy.

When I first heard of the list, my immediate reaction was surely Kenji would sit on top. After all, he's been awful and has gotten quite a bit of playing time. However, there are 8 Mariners total in the list, so he has some competition for the title.

25 players to start the season. 8 make the list of LVP based on the metrics used.

Pretty much sums it up doesn't it?

Check it out if you haven't already.

2008-08-19T09:39:00.000-07:00

We all make mistakes

As the Mariners head toward 100 losses it's pretty obvious the team stinks. Management has juggled the lineup, shuffled players, cut a few, given veterans yards of slack and the losing continues. I think it is fair to say mistakes were made in assembling the team.

Along the way, us fans have made mistakes too. I thought the team was .500 or a little better (I predicted mid-80's the most likely outcome). I never saw this train wreck coming. I made a mistake in judging just how bad this team would be.

But the big debate among Mariner fans after the "how good is this post-88 win team going to be" is the Bedard trade. Sides were taken. Words written. Venom and blood intermingled.

We can now say the trade was a complete disaster. The Bedard supporters couldn't draw up a worse scenario if they tried. Even the most ardent pro-trade fans will admit the trade hurt the team and should never have been made. In other words, the other side was right.

And that's a hard thing for some people to admit. Wrong sucks. It means your analysis, your knowledge of the game, your belief system is incorrect and the only way to avoid the mistake again is to change.

And we all know how people fear change.

This season was set up as a showdown. On one side you have people like USS Mariner, LL, Rob Neyer, BP etc... arguing the team isn't good and the trade foolish on the part of the Mariners. On the other side you have supporters like KJR, Baker, Stone, Kelley, Hickey etc... who thought the trade turned the team in to contenders.

We don't even need to finish up the season to see who won do we? This was a first round knockout and by May the staredown was over and only the most supportive fans around to view the carcass.

If you believed the Bedard trade was good at the time, don't you have to give the other side a little more credit than you did before when the next debate comes up? Don't you have to admit you made a mistake and move on?

It's one thing to say you made a mistake.

It's another to actually make the changes necessary to avoid them in the future. What's the saying.... insanity is doing the same thing twice and expecting different results.

Time for some people to stop the insanity.

2008-08-13T09:44:00.000-07:00

Defense does matter

It's funny to watch the post game chatter after another loss to the Angels and hear/read how the error by Yuni cost the team the game. Baker in the Times actually wrote "courtesy of the latest Yuniesky Betancourt mishap in the field" in todays paper.

I find it funny because this same reporter wrote very passionately earlier this season how the Mariners were poised to make a run at the division yet defense didn't seem to be a huge concern at the time.

Consider what was written last January-
"The defense could be slightly worse than last year, or slightly better depending on who replaces Jones and the progression of the middle infield."

Considering Jones was one of the better defenders in baseball before he got hurt I think we can safely say the Mariners defense was downgraded when the trade was made. But the last part of the statement is telling- even the Times beat reporter knew before the season started the progression of the middle infield was important. He's also stating the defense, which already was one of the worst in baseball last year, had the chance to get a little worse or a little better.

In other words, the same reporter who predicted the team would win the division knew full well the teams defense was at best bad. The range was basically worst in the league to maybe bottom third. And guess what- the teams defense is as awful as Geoff feared.

Yet now the defense is costing us games, or so says the paper.

See if you agree with this timeline-
2001: 116 wins and best defense in baseball
2002-2003- decline in wins and defense
2004-2007- defense in bottom 5 in baseball
Jan 2008- Times reporter predicts team will win division while acknowledging defense will be poor
August 13, 2008- Times reporter writes article listing defensive mistake as critical moment in game, leading to yet another loss

So fans need to make a decision. When a team goes in to a season with a terrible defense, do you act surprised when the terrible defense costs you games?

That's what it feels like the Times reporting is doing. When they had a chance earlier this year to read the many articles and computer predictions that showed the Mariners defense stunk and was a leading cause along with an inept offense for a disappointing season, they ignored the evidence. Did Steve Kelley take all the evidence given to him and take that in to account when writing about the Mariners before the season started?

I think not. Did Geoff Baker believe the defense was a critical issue that may well determine the teams chances of being successful this year? His articles and blog posts quite clearly answer that question; defense was not a major concern coming in to the season. He knew it would be bad, and used the NY Yankees as an example of a poor defensive team who still makes the playoffs.

I bring this up just to voice my overall disappointment when I hear fans make a conscious choice to ignore evidence at the beginning of the season and then choose to highlight it when the mood strikes them. It's cherry picking at its worst.

A telling stat for this team is this will now be the FIFTH year in a row it has given up more runs than it has scored. This team has to go back to 2003 to remember what it feels like to score more runs than they give up. They are a bad team. Bad pitching. Bad hitting. Bad fielders. Lack of talent. Lack of power. Lack of patience at the plate.

They all were visible during last nights game. This team was poorly constructed coming in to the season, and had ZERO backup plan when things went sour.

Don't single out Yuni or Lopez or any single player.

It's a collective effort to be this bad, and to focus on a single player or play during a game while the team marches to 100+ losses just doesn't make sense to me.

2008-08-11T11:11:00.000-07:00

Thoughts on Shannon Drayer

"No reporter has spent more time with the Mariners the past 4 years than Shannon Drayer."

In a somewhat surprising move, the radio reporter for KOMO Shannon Drayer was fired last week and it hasn't gone unnoticed in the blogger world. From a purely financial perspective, (it's obviously nothing against Drayer's work) the move makes some sense. The radio station has lost millions on the deal and is simply looking at staunching the bleeding.

As a fan, of course I think it stinks. KOMO signed up for the deal with the Mariners and has now chosen to downgrade their coverage in a move to save a few dollars. Not good PR for sure.

However, as a blogger and Mariner fan I have to admit- I have long wondered what Drayer did that made her worth whatever they were paying her.

Let me try to explain.

KOMO has been paying Drayer's salary (let's say $100k) and travel expenses (~$50-75k?) for years. Now these are totally made up numbers, but just for fun we can guestimate the station was probably paying close to $150-200k a year by the time all the accounting stuff is added in for Drayer's time. What did it get for that money?

A blog that is updated infrequently- check
A radio reporter who gets a few minutes on air before and after a game- check

That about cover it?

I can't think of a single media person who is paid to follow the team and produces less content or analysis. As a member of the radio station reporting on the team, I don't expect a young reporter to be ripping on the M's. Don't get me wrong, I understand the context of her job. Follow the players, pick good stories and entertain the fans.

That's it.

Be entertaining.

But was she? For hardcore fans, I don't see how you can give her a passing grade. Her stuff may have been great, but there's no way the quantity justified the expense. And to the casual fan? Was her two minute update on Raul's batting practice session all that entertaining? Again, I say no. She's not a beat writer. She doesn't have deadlines for tomorrows story. She covers the players, says a few things on air and watches the game. Then she goes on the air for a couple more minutes and then joins Hickey, Baker etc... in the clubhouse.

(Just to be clear, my skepticism of the job was not personally directed at Drayer; more at the way the station chose to user her reporting skills.)

She would occasionally mention hot topics but just as often gave "AP Wire" type of updates. She could have said things on the radio like "... the fans online were really debating Raul's defense after last nights game..." or "...Vidro in the DH spot is raising eyebrows around the league..." more often and still be wearing a reporters hat. She is not making the news, not offering analysis, but is reporting on the team while being entertaining. But either she or the station refused to increase the quantity or entertainment factor of the reports, so what are we left with?

Was it worth listening to 20 minutes of commercials to get to the two minute update that stood a 50/50 chance of a rehash of the lineup or injury report? Not for me.

Would I listen to 20 minutes of commercials to hear a roundtable of Derek at USS Mariner, Jeff at LL and some random ex-Mariner analyst? Sure. That content works for me.

All the access granted as a team reporter didn't feel like "insider information" to me. What did I learn from Drayer? Where was the insight?

The station invested quite a bit of money to send a reporter all around the country and interview players. However, it seemed to struggle with taking the information gathered and presenting it in a compelling, interesting fashion to keep readers and listeners interested.

If of course wish Shannon the best, and hope she lands on her feet perhaps at KIRO.

However, if it's going to be the same limited output as at KOMO, I'd prefer they went in a different direction. She may have spent more time with the team than any reporter the past four years, but I'm not sure I learned enough to justify the expense.

To put it another way, Derek and Dave at USS Mariner get paid zero and have increased my knowledge of the team tremendously. Drayer was paid hundreds of thousands of dollars over a similar time span and increased my knowledge of the team a negligible amount.

Not a fair comparison I know, but covering baseball is a business and I wasn't going out of my way to hear or read Drayer's reports. I couldn't have been the only one.

2008-08-06T16:11:00.000-07:00

Wow, Washburn is awesome

Six innings, only gives up three earned. I am sure at least a dozen teams are chomping at the bit to take on his salary for next year when they see the kind of performance Jarrod is capable of.

According to Baker and others, the M's can make a deal at any time since they can simply put him on waivers and watch him get snapped up. With Joba out, this seems like the perfect time to test the theory.

Personally I think it's crazy to believe the M's always had an August waiver option with Washburn. The team took a chance when they passed on trading him to the Yankees. Now they are forced to soon decide when to put him on waivers and see if teams bite.

The longer they wait, the more likely Baker and others will be wrong for assuming Washburn would be easily moved this month.

(Then again, I was wrong about the team releasing Vidro with so little time left in the season. I think one thing we can all agree on is we've all been wrong in one way or another about this season.)

But Washburn needs to go. There should be no disagreement there, regardless of how easy you might think it will be.

2008-08-05T17:10:00.000-07:00

Who is in charge of the Mariners?

Now they DFA Vidro on August 5th? Right after they move Morrow to the pen?

I'm with everybody else. Where did this come from?

Sure, the team is the laughing stock of baseball. They will be the first $100+ million team with 100 losses. They are included on every list of losers with regards to the trading deadline. Their decision to draft a reliever in the first round was met with snickers throughout baseball. They are regularly included in the bottom on team rankings. They are casually slammed by baseball analysts on a daily basis. The Onion even jumps in the fray. What is left? The Word on the Colbert Report?

Through all this, the team continued on its merry way, making decisions that baffled everyone. Now out of the blue, with the same interim GM and interim manager who was quoted LAST NIGHT there was no internal consensus on Morrow, who hadn't talked to the pitching coach about moving Morrow in TEN DAYS we have our bombshells.

It's great. I'm not complaining. I'd just like to understand why our irrational friends suddenly make two good decisions in a row. Even blind squirrels find a nut? Or is something else happening over at Safeco field behind the scenes?

This is not the normal Mariner Front Office. Something happen, and I suspect we'll get some answers shortly.

2008-08-05T14:37:00.000-07:00

Finally

USS Mariner is reporting Morrow is heading to AAA to learn how to be a starter. After all the confusing reports we've heard... they haven't talked about it, there is no consensus internally etc... I have to say I'm surprised to hear the news.

If logic were in place, this would have happened 18 months ago but I won't complain because the team actually made an intelligent decision.

If the team announces Ibanez to a 3-yr extension tomorrow then all good news is lost. However, this is a baby step towards rebuilding the team with intelligence and planning.

Hooray to the team showing belated common sense. Not a slam, just a fact.

2008-08-04T14:58:00.001-07:00

Morrow is not a security blanket

Or a babysitter for that matter. Yet we hear more and more the M's are finally considering having a plan to move Morrow to the rotation (hooray for waking from zombie sleep) but the plan depends on Putz.

To which I say wtf!

Who cares if Putz is ready to close right now. You are the worst team in the AL BY FAR. There really isn't even a close second. Your closer situation is the last thing on the list to worry about.

Do we even need to debate who is more important, a starter or closer? Any rational, breathing baseball person (sorry Chuck) knows full well Brandon Morrow is more important to this team as a starter. Do you think the Yanks regret moving Joba to the rotation? Do you think the Giants are considering moving Lincecum to the bullpen? This line of thinking is so stupid it's embarrassing to even need to bring it up.

This past weekend saw 30,000+ fans show up on a weekend to watch the worst team in the AL play Baltimore. Do you think the closer situation matters to one fan that showed up at Safeco? Do you think Dad told the kids "let's go see a baseball ga... oh wait, Morrow isn't in the bullpen... forget it" even once?

If Safeco fans were about winning and losing, the place would have been deserted yesterday. But our illustrious leaders pat themselves on the back for making idiotic decisions like leaving Morrow in the bullpen by rationalising they are keeping fans coming through the turnstiles.

Morrow's development should be 100% focused on making him the best starting pitcher he can be. If he fails, he can head back to the bullpen. The closers role on a team heading toward 100+ losses is not simply not a problem they should be worrying about. It's like their watching their car get repo'd and wondering if the tire pressure is okay. In my opinion the teams handling of Morrow is a clear sign leadership is behaving irresponsibly and should be replaced. There is simply no rational argument that begins with "Putz needs..." or "The bullpen..." when talking about the move to Morrow and the rotation. There just isn't.

So where is the media in all this? Does Larry Stone criticize the Mariners handling of the situation in the paper? Does Geoff Baker, or Hickey or anyone else who gets paid to follow this team call bullshit on this cave man thinking?

If we want the Mariners to act like a team that's thinking of the future, we need the local media to start caring as well. I know Kelley and a lot of the local writers are probably gearing up for football and have already lost interest in the season. But that is no excuse they can't use their forum to educate the masses when the team is making yet again a stupid baseball decision. We don't need to extend Jose Vidro, and we sure as hell don't need to see Brandon Morrow closing games 1-2 times a week.

Stupid is as stupid does.

2008-08-01T14:46:00.000-07:00

Time for team to put "plan" in action

Last year Bill Bavasi right after the trade deadline made the ridiculous statement bringing Adam Jones from AAA was "in play" and we soon saw him with the club. Of course there is no rule in baseball that says you can't bring prospects up until after the trade deadline, hence the ridiculous quote, but for whatever reason it took the deadline to get the team to make a move.

Now that the artificial deadline has past, what can we expect? Are there are plans in store for Lee and the brain trust?

Here's a few obvious moves.

- Release Vidro. He will of course clear waivers and many have expected his release. However, as I noted earlier the team could have released him months ago and didn't. With the expanded Sept. roster getting closer by the day, I expect Vidro to remain with the team in a reduced role.
- Bring up RRS. He is pitching well in AAA and could be brought up to replace Batista or Washburn. Will certainly join club by September at the latest.
- Washburn traded. He should be immediately put on waivers to see if teams are still willing to eat his contract. Baker and others think the market for Washburns contract is bigger than I do. With teams like the Yankees having future options Hughes and Wang getting closer by the day, I don't see any reason the team would want to wait until late August to make a move. If he isn't moved in the next 10 days, I suspect he's on the opening day roster in '09.
- Morrow to rotation. Should have already happened. Smart teams don't send top talent to winter ball, and hoping Morrow magically becomes a starter next spring is risky. However, team has shown no ability to think ahead so expect him to remain in pen for rest of the year.
- Wlad. Should be brought up and given playing time in majors, however I've never been sold on him as an every day major league player so don't really care what they do here. I expect him to be called up in September and keep the bench warm.
- Cairo release. Team won't do it. Next.
- Bench Willie. Team won't do it. Next.
- Move Ibanez to DH. Team won't do it. Next.
- ??

Ideally the team will start making moves to strengthen the roster knowledge they have going in to the off season. However, they consistently have over valued their players and are still struggling to understand why the team is so lousy. Combined with a bunch of interim managers who have little to no creative bones in their body, we can expect much of the same.

Send out same players.
Lose game.
Act surprised same plan produces same results.
Repeat.
Go home at end of season.

That appears to be the "plan" Chuck and Howie are implementing.

2008-07-31T16:02:00.000-07:00

M's strike out again

I predicted on this blog a week ago there would be little activity for the M's at the deadline. I didn't expect much based on our interim GM, lack of talent on the team and past history at the deadline.

The Rhodes trade was a no brainer. We all knew he made perfect sense to be moved, and he was. Give the M's credit for having a pulse.

Washburn was noted as being a pitcher that was oft-talked about but when push came to shove no one wanted to give anything of significance for him. The M's are stupid to have not traded him when they did. By assuming the only team who showed a willingness (Yanks) will casually pick him off waivers is risky, risky business. Don't be shocked when Washburn clears waivers, but don't be surprised to hear no one is taking on his contract because we are in a new month.

Ibanez was also a long shot. We all know the club over values its gritty veterans and were going to need to be blown away to trade him. They weren't and they didn't.

That's it. One minor trade and some talk. The worst team in the AL had a chance to use the trade deadline to make improvements and they chose to pass.

Did we hear rumors of the M's shopping Lopez? Yuni? Anything that required creativity and forward thinking beyond shopping the usual veterans with short contracts?

No.

In this day and age when news is leakier then ever, we heard crickets from the Mariner camp beyond the usual quick fixes. How about floating a Brandon Morrow name out there to see what it would bring back? Am I advocating trading him? No. But I am advocating learning what the worth of your players truly are.

Who were the Mariners targeting from other clubs? Who did they go get?

The Mariner brass stood in front the cameras and said everyone on this team was expendable if it made the team better.

Today we see the results of their action.

2008-07-30T11:10:00.000-07:00

Trade Washburn now!

A number of writers have jumped in on the Mexican standoff. Some believe the Mariners have every right to stand up to the mighty Yankees and should hold firm. Just because the team is far and away the worst in the AL doesn't mean it has to act like the farm system for the AL East. Or so the thinking goes.

Here is what's wrong with that argument.

YOU MIGHT GET STUCK WITH JARROD WASHBURN!

What Lee Peler... Pelaa... Pelahughalophus errrr our GM is missing is the value the Yankees are already offering by agreeing to take on the Mariners salary obligation. Many fans think the Yankees need to offer up a serious prospect like Gardner or Melky to make this worth while for the club.

But they already are. What the Mariners should be doing is dancing in the aisles over ridding themselves of Washburn with the knowledge they have $14 million back in their pocket!

What would the Mariners receive for Washburn? Whatever $14 million can get you. A revamped outfield, a new first basemen, a new starting pitcher, a car for Chuck and Howie... whatever the team wants. Even in todays world, $14 million gives you a lot of flexibility. If nothing else, you could use that money as your "Latin bonus fund" and go wild on a few guys. The Yankees are literally giving you multiple prospects by offering to take Washburn off your hands.

If the team thinks Washburn will be easily picked up off waivers in August, put down the crack pipe and get some fresh air. Every day that clicks off the calendar is reducing the impact a guy like Washburn can provide. In August the Yankees might get Hughes (and Wang in Sept) back- maybe they don't bite on Washburn. And teams like the Cardinals are much less likely to take on $10 million in salary for next year when they are only getting 4-5 starts this year.

Trade Washburn now. Don't think about it. Just do it.

The Mariners continue to show why they are the worst run team in baseball.

2008-07-29T13:31:00.000-07:00

Ibanez replacement

I've noticed recently a trend. If Willie is actually not playing and gets inserted late in a game as a pinch runner (like last night) he is often moved to LF and Ibanez is benched. The obvious plan is to upgrade the outfield defense.

The first question that comes to mind is why did it take so long? It's such an obvious move you wonder why the M's weren't doing it years ago.

The second question is why now?

Ibanez has always been terrible in LF defensively. He was awful last year, and the year before. Why all of a sudden, for the first time since he joined the Mariners, is Ibanez suddenly being replaced in LF?

I wonder if the recent trade discussions has anything to do with it. Do you think the team called up organizations like Arizona and were shut down when they wouldn't entertain acquiring him because of his defense? Do you think teams said "we like his bat but he can't field his position any more" or "he is only a DH" at this point in his career? I know this may not be a consensus for every team, but it's certainly possible some bright teams are being brutally honest behind closed doors and telling the M's they have a really crappy LF on their hands who is all bat and no glove.

I'm wondering if perhaps this led to the organization viewing Ibanez differently. If this has been discussed else where or we already know the answer, please send me a link as I'd love an explanation. For now, I'm just guessing as to why the light bulb went off after being dormant for so long.

2008-07-25T14:05:00.000-07:00

Joba Chamberlain will pitch tonight

Will Brandon Morrow?

For those that think Morrow can be a successful starter, would you like to ask the Yankees if they are happy with the decision to start Chamberlain?

Do you think the Giants are happy Lincecum is a starter, or do you think they would prefer he be a set-up guy or closer?

We have heard from multiple sources there is disagreement within the Mariner organization on whether Morrow should be groomed for a starters role this season. I will submit any baseball executive (or fan) within the Mariner organization who believes Morrow is better served shoring up the bullpen is displaying irresponsible behavior and is unfit for office.

If you believe the 8-9th inning in any Mariner game this weekend is more important than the 2009 starting rotation, you are an idiot.

2008-07-25T11:13:00.000-07:00

Trade Rumors

As expected the annual hype about possible Mariner trades is in full bloom, despite the fact rarely even one tenth of the rumors ever pan out. The biggest thing keeping the Mariners in the rumor mill is mostly due to the Yankees.

If NY were in first place, I doubt we'd be hearing anywhere near the current interest in players like Washburn. The fact the boys in pinstripes are currently chasing two teams in their own division and face the very real fact the Twins OR White Sox could own the Wild Card makes them a little desperate (and should be making every Mariner fan smile for obvious reason).

Say for example the current rumor of Cano for Kemp/Lowe actually took place. If Pelekoudas was smart, he would be offering Lopez and/or Vidro or Yuni as a solution to the new found hole in the Yankee infield. A lot of scenarios that could involve the Mariners will spring up if any of the major trades involving other teams and the Yankees take place. I hope our GM is talking with Cashman every day trying to get in on the latest trade possibilities that are about to become real.

So here's a recap of what we know is taking place right now:

The Yankees are 100% certain to make a move. Too many teams between them and the playoffs; they seem dead set on making changes.
Washburn most likely to be traded. He doesn't have any fan appeal and Howie and Chuck will support a trade that saves them money and creates the appearance of action.
Ibanez isn't going anywhere. A good GM would explore it, but the team will ask for the moon and other GM's aren't that stupid.
Rhodes is still an option to be traded, but other lefties like Sherill are getting all the attention. If Rhodes is moved the return will be so nominal it will hardly register on the excitement scale.
Lopez and/or Yuni aren't going anywhere barring a huge deal between other teams. This only reinforces why the current team can't be trusted this winter as both should be actively shopped right now. The fact your not hearing much about either is unfortunate.
The Mariners aren't going to get excellent prospects from the Yankees without throwing money into it. The teams not going to shed salary AND get prospects. The Yankees are not the idiots the rumors would make them appear.

No one is getting traded over the weekend. I suspect many of the teams on the fence are waiting to see how the weekend series go and teams like the Braves will jump start the process when they finally make a move. It's like a series of dominoes and by Tuesday the first one will have been knocked over. How many more fall depend on the size of a trade. A big one will guarantee action for Mariner players.

2008-07-23T15:20:00.001-07:00

Casual fans get reminded of Bavasi mess

When beat writers and columnists write about the teams future, they tend to get carried away on options that are actually obtainable. For example, many casual fans might get the impression that Washburn's recent success has created a market. Read enough of the PI and Times and you might think the teams going to be a big player come the trading deadline.

And then that world clashes with reality.

Exhibit A in this alternate universe reality check is reports Washburn MIGHT get us a Kei Igawa or something of that ilk. Of course even the most casual of fans know to turn their noses at that thought!

It helps to keep guys like Washburn in perspective. The timeline might look like-

1) Washburn is signed by Bavasi for four years and $37 million. The next highest offer is for 1/3 the money and two years
2) For the first two seasons, Washburn is completely untradeable and a poster child for ovepaying for mediocrity
3) Washburn generates modest interest in a pitching-poor market when the remaining money owed Jarrod goes from "Zito-esque" to simply ridiculous
4) Washburn now enters the territory where he is exchangeable for other teams mistakes

In other words, instead of being completely untradeable enough time has gone by that the money owed might (i repeat MIGHT) generate enough interest to get a team to try to dump some crap on us.

That is what the Bavasi era has brought us. A series of maybe trades that will generate little in return.

That is how this team spent $117 million and has so little to show for it.

As I've said multiple times, don't expect much activity or return next week. Regardless of what espn or the Times tries to tell you.

2008-07-22T12:24:00.000-07:00

Who will be traded?

With the deadline fast approaching, and the Riggleman era looking more and more like the McLaren era, the team is going to have to make a move shortly. There is no way the team can continue to send out the same collection of players as it marches towards 100 losses after canning its manager and GM. Changes have to be made, if only for appearances sake if nothing else.

Other than the Sexson firing, which might never have happened if Ritchie hadn't thrown a fit, we haven't seen significant player moves since Bavasi's removal. Lee is going to want to show his potential bosses he can be a GM, so let's look at what we know for certain is at work here:
1) The team wants to show the fans it's doing SOMETHING
2) The interim GM wants to show SOMEONE he is trying to do SOMETHING
3) Bedard's not going anywhere
4) Chuck and Howie will have a major say in any player movement

I submit those are four things we know for sure are true between now and July 31st. Something will happen, but it will have to involve Chuck's blessing and it won't involve Bedard.

Ibanez-
Raul is the face of the franchise, according to Chuck and Howie. The biggest surprise about Ibanez is simply that he hasn't been extended already. Who would have thought Raul would be heading in to the off season as a free agent? Clearly something is amiss... either Raul won't sign or team management isn't... no, that can't be right. Regardless, Raul isn't going anywhere. Chuck won't approve it.

Washburn-
The smart move is to dump him. He suffers a lot from the Ryan Franklin syndrome. Even when he doesn't give up runs he loses. Eventually the team needs to move him if for no other reason he never wins any games. Casual fans think Washburn has made a change or is pitching better. He didn't and he's not. He is still the same pitcher that should be making 1/10 of what he's being paid. That's all. It's impossible to believe a team has actually made an offer and the team has turned it down. Chances of moving: Extremely high. (If Washburn is still on the team, it meant no one was willing to part with anything and he may clear waivers and still be moved before September.)

Vidro-
No one would ever trade for him, and he will likely remain with the team the rest of the year. His option won't vest and he's not throwing a fit like Sexson over not playing. Logic says if the team was going to release him it would have happened already.

Beltre-
Not going anywhere. Has value but team has no replacement. Would be shocked to see him go, but all bets are off next year at this time (doubtful he will resign here)

Lopez-
Team should be actively shopping, but teams aren't interested (for all the obvious reasons).

Yuni-
Team should be calling the Dodgers 15 times a day. Highly unlikely he will be moved, but he should while he actually has value.

Rhodes-
Under normal circumstances would be certain to go. Lack of trades this year has me wondering how many teams really want to trade for a pitcher as specialized as Rhodes.

Putz-
Not going anywhere.

That's it. I'd be surprised if anyone else is traded. Can't see Reed going anywhere, Clement etc... The most likely to leave is Washburn, and that is 100% contingent on some team actually wanting him and his contract.

The team is in a tough spot. They want to make a move, but the moves are all painful. It's what happens when you are one of the worst teams in baseball. No one wants the players you would be willing to give up, and your situation isn't improved by having an interim GM.

The other factor coming in to play is the large number of teams still competing for a wild card but not many moves have been made. When the Brewers acted, the Cubs immediately reacted. The AL has been quiet, and teams haven't felt the need to one-up their rivals. A few trades that altered the landscape would really help the M's cause and might contribute to some actual interest rather than the casual calls they've received.

I don't expect much to happen between now and next Thursday, but I do know Morrow will be available if any save situations do come up...

2008-07-22T10:08:00.000-07:00

Morrow was available if needed

If any of the Seattle fans who attended last nights game were wondering, Morrow was available if needed to save the game. Therefore, you don't need to feel bad about the team losing, because our "save" guy was ready just in case we actually needed a save.

Don't worry about next year. That's a long time from now. The important thing for this franchise, right now, is to keep it's bullpen in order. You can't expect a veteran coaching staff like the Mariners have to figure out a plan if Morrow was moved to the rotation. It's just too hard on everyone, so it's best to stick with the status quo.

So get your tickets to tonights game, and maybe, just maybe, you'll get to see Brandon Morrow pitch.

Unless Willie and Cairo are both playing, and then you probably won't.

2008-07-21T15:36:00.000-07:00

More on why the Mariners are screwed with Morrow

Lots of emails on the Brandon Morrow situation. Do you leave him in the closers role or send him somewhere/anywhere on the planet now to start figuring out how to pitch as a starter (basically undo a lot the things he's been taught while being a 1-inning pitcher)?

Here's the biggest fly in the ointment for the Mariners plan to work.

Innings pitched.

Let's say you buy the crazy Mariner logic that Morrow saving 1-2 games a week for the rest of the season is more important than anything that could happen next year and beyond (what some fans refer to as "the future"). And let's say we accept the idea Morrow will be magically ready to start in 2009 and will be effective (what some fans call a "pipe dream").

How long will you let him pitch? August 1 or 31st, 2009?

Your prized arm, who will be starting his third season as a Mariner in 2009 will have to carry a significant pitch count limit. There is no possible plan that could realistically see him exceed 175 innings pitched next year. So even in the best case scenario, where Morrow is exceedingly effective and regularly pitches 6-7 innings a start, he'll be shut down before the team reaches September. The only thing that would save the club from having to make the hard decision on when to shut him down will be injury or ineffectiveness. Hardly the scenarios you hope for if you envision Morrow helping the club win next year. (that future thing again)

Last year the Mariners made Morrow pitch in Spring training, the entire 162 game schedule and then play winter ball. If the Mariners insist on repeating this awful treatment again don't be surprised to hear the word "dead arm" next year.

The ONLY logical, reasonable move for the Mariners is to start stretching out Morrow RIGHT NOW. As a Mariner, in AAA, AA, whatever. He needs to start learning to pitch more than one inning and he needs to learn when and how to throw other pitches while going through a lineup.

Let Fields, Lowe, Putz and whomever close out games this year and beyond. The Mariners could have Fields signed and pitching right now but are letting a few dollars delay his professional development.

It will be interesting to see how Morrow's future plays out, but every day the club delays his transition makes it harder and harder to see him being an effective starter for the Seattle Mariners.

2008-07-21T10:09:00.000-07:00

Even Steve Kelley is noticing...

In a some what shocking development, Steve Kelley of the Times wrote an article that was dead on- link

It's about time a more prominent local writer began hammering the M's for their ridiculous lineups. Anyone who reads the local team blogs knows hardcore fans have been tearing their hair out watching the lineups being run out there. Cairo, Willie, Joh, Burke et al are simply embarrassing for a team spending over $100 million. Never has so much resulted in so little.

It's quite obvious when the worst team in the AL still draws 100k+ fans in a weekend series the gate is not being solely determined by wins and losses. Rather, the sun and beer have more to do with the fun being generated at Safeco, so why not start looking seriously at the future? When even Steve Kelley is noticing your flawed plan, the rats have long jumped ship.

Still, while Kelley occasionally wakes up and notices the game being played I'm still not sure where Baker stands- latest blog

In attempting to explain the differences between RRS and Morrow, I readily admit Geoff is in a no win situation. It's a little bit like having your debate team tasked to defend Bush's energy policy. You struggle to come up with a coherent argument.

Even so, gems like this don't help any-
"Until Putz is ready, which may not be until mid-August, you need a competent late-innings guy out there."

Strike one.

"...fans would be in an uproar if this team were to keep blowing late-inning leads, especially after making them sit through the first 2 1/2 hours or so."

Strike two.

"Not many options for the ninth besides Morrow."

Strike three.

I like Geoff Baker and love his blog. He really knows how to stir the pot when it comes to generating controversy and I begin to think more and more he writes stuff just to increase interest in his posts. But I am also getting concerned on his learning curve. I really thought he would be more open to ideas after a disastrous winter.

Quick recap. Over the winter Baker said:
- Oakland would be bad because everyone at espn said so
- Texas sucks, because they always suck
- Defense is overrated and Ibanez is fine in LF
- Mariners never have to rebuild because they have money (dollars = reload)
- Vidro is a proffessional hitter who has adjusted to the league and will be productive
- The Mariner offense will be fine because we lost Guillen but the drop off to Wilkerson will be slight and everyone else is the same, therefore the offense is fine
- McLaren deserves to be the manager because last year was not a good time to judge his actions and now he has his staff and his players so let him play the year before we judge
- Seattle will challenge Angels for division
- Pro-Bedard stance, almost to an extreme
- Bedard is an ace, and when you have an ace you don't have losing streaks
- Bedard is an ace who makes the entire pitching staff better
- Bedard is an ace who makes the bullpen better
- you get the idea...

For a writer who really couldn't have been more wrong about the season he sure takes the teams side over and over. It's refreshing to have a counter argument and I don't want him to parrot everything LL and USS Mariner prints, but I also don't want him to mislead casual fans who read the Times at lunch.

The Mariners completely screwed the pooch on Morrow. The people who follow the team closely saw they were screwing it up and complained loudly while they were doing it. Continually trying to prop up whatever poor argument the team might float out there is not doing anyone any service.

Cleveland just took two of three from the team. Morrow was a non factor. How about more articles that state the obvious, and less looking like a debate challenge?

2008-07-19T10:45:00.000-07:00

M's deserved to lose game

It's not often I can say a team deserved to lose a game, especially one with my favorite pitcher on the mound. But the lineup our manager ran out on to the field was so poorly thought out and so terrible I fear it sends the wrong message to the team.

Here's a look at the lineup last night against Cleveland with Felix on the hill-

Ichiro
Bloomquist
Ibanez
Beltre
Lopez
Cairo
Johjima
Burke
Betancourt

Take any list you want to put together with whatever scouting/numbers system you choose to use and the four worst hitters on this team are the same- Cairo, Johjima, Burke and Willie in whatever order you want. (Vidro would be just above these guys)

After coming off the All Star break, with every player rested and ready to go, our Front Office managed to put in our 3rd string catcher while simultaneously sitting our two best prospects currently on the team- Reed and Clement.

Instead of keeping even a slight eye to the future of the team, the two players with the most question marks sit on the bench while Willie and Cairo collect useless at bats.

Who cares if Reed and Clement are left handed? Do you think the team cares that Ibanez can't hit right handers worth monkey-poo but all of a sudden "stats" matter for the kids?

I'm glad Felix got the win, but honestly I don't want this team to be rewarded by continually putting absolutely terrible lineups on the field.

If you disagree, then I think we should all kindly tell you to go to hell when you complain about the offense collecting 3 hits when a real pitcher is on the mound...

BTW- Cleveland looked TERRIBLE last night.

2008-07-18T13:30:00.000-07:00

Don't expect much change

Trade Bedard, get rid of Beltre, dump Vidro... writers, fans, bloggers alike all talk about possible changes the Mariners could do before years end.

I've been saying all along don't expect much.

Consider the recent talk of trading Ichiro and compare with Mariner actions-

Signed Johjima to a 3 year extension despite terrible play and aging pattern of 32 year old catchers
Let Sexson play terrible baseball for a year and half before finally releasing him for "body language" issues and not for being the worst first baseman in the game
Still carry Vidro
Hit Vidro 4th
Play Willie reguarly
Play Cairo at all
Still let Ibanez "roam" LF

We could go on and on. And now we should consider trading our best every day player? Consider something the Mariners could have done after dumping Bavasi (finally).

Interview a GM candidate.

Does it matter they won't make a final decision until fall? Is there a rule in baseball they can't start the process now?

Of course not. Instead of getting some informed information from potential GM's the team continues to agonize making the most mundane decisions. Remember when they wouldn't even interview Dusty Baker when he was available back in the day? That mind set is still evident today.

Consider another simple plan. Cut Vidro.

It's really that simple. But the team won't do it.

So why in the world would we expect the team that does nothing to actually make a smart decision on Bedard, Ichiro, Beltre ect...??? We don't trust them to make smart moves, and frankly the more non-moves the better until someone who knows something about baseball is in place.

Ichiro is one of the best reasons to watch the Mariners. Why some one would want to deny me that pleasure is beyond comprehension when the team has 100+ other, simpler issues to resolve.

Bedard's not going anywhere. Ichiro's not going anywhere. This season needs to end before real changes are made unfortunately.

2008-07-16T11:10:00.000-07:00

Great All Star Game

New York definitely knows how to throw a party. While many will complain about the game for one reason or another, I thought it was a huge success and Selig should by given a rare compliment.

Why?

Because of the things I didn't see.

The game didn't end with no one winning. The game didn't end with a dozen player kids spilling on to the field and running around the bases. The game didn't feature players hugging each other between innings when taking the field.

Instead, we actually saw two teams trying to win a game. It wasn't easy, as the managers had to balance the difficult act of getting everyone in the game and still possess a backup plan if the game continued.

I don't know about you, but I would loved to have seen a position player have to take the mound if the game continued. This stuff happens during the season (e.g. Burke) and there's no reason it can't happen in the All Star game.

Exciting baseball, and Selig making the game count for something deserves credit for it.

2008-07-11T12:48:00.000-07:00

Bedard not going anywhere

I've said it before and I'll say it again. The odds are very slim our "ace" is going to be traded before the deadline. It may mean teams wouldn't mind having him, and it will mean you'll see lots of articles speculating about teams acquiring him but those are different then an actual trade.

The ideal scenario for the M's if they did trade Bedard would be at least two major league ready replacements who could fill the many holes that need to be filled next year. The problem is no team is going to make that deal. Instead the Mariners will get prospects, and that means realistically help for the team in 2010 and later.

Let's say for a second the team got a strong offer with some nice AAA players in the mix. Does any Mariner fan feel the front office for this team is ready to plug in rookies in key positions next year? The same current front office that can't get Reed in the game on a regular basis is now ready to trade Bedard for a bunch of rookies to play in 2009?

Until a new regime is in place that embraces youth and understands how and where to play rookies, I just can't see a Bedard trade taking place. The team that sends Bloomquist on the field and struggles to find a proper reason to explain why they dumped Sexson is in no place to trade Bedard.

And besides, would we even trust the current team to get proper value for him?

I don't expect to see Bedard traded, and given what I've seen from the current FO I think that's a good thing.

Say no to trading Bedard, at least for now.

2008-07-10T11:51:00.000-07:00

Sexson gone

One the biggest disappointments for me as a fan of the Mariners has been watching their handling of Ritchie Sexson. After his numbers plummeted last year, any organization with half a brain would have either-
1) Traded him (eating all of his salary if necessary, or getting something equally distasteful in return)
2) Kept him, but have a backup plan ready to go

The team picked neither of course. Instead of executing a plan, Bavasi rubbed his lucky rabbits foot and hoped and prayed last year was an aberration. When it proved to be a repeat of last season, a replacement was no where to be found.

All teams in professional sports deal with players who no longer produce- football, lacrosse, soccer... it doesn't matter. It's not even an age thing necessarily. Some young players (Yuni) regress even though they are not at an age where one would necessarily expect it.

Sometimes the best thing for a player to break out of a slump is a change of scenery. It's good for the player and it's good for the club. The more the pressure increases at home, the boos start, the kids start hearing about it at school... it's a game played by humans and we shouldn't act like these things don't matter.

But the Mariners chose a different path. While some might call it loyalty, I think it's a disservice to the player, the organization and the fans.

How much money did the Mariners "save" by waiting until now?

How much fun did fans have watching Ritchie strike out at the plate?

How much fun did Mariner pitchers have watching balls scoot by a statue at first base?

The team thought they were being loyal, but instead of dealing with a problem they ignored it. Like the mom who won't acknowledge dads drinking problem, the Mariners chose to ignore the history of 6' 8" first basemen who hit their thirties and lose what little bat speed they have. Their ignorance should not be commended.

I hope Ritchie goes on and plays well for a new team. I think there is little chance of that happening, but someone will give him a shot. I won't be surprised if he's out of baseball within a year.

What I would really like to see is the Mariner organization learn something from this debacle and not ignore the warning signs the next time it happens.

2008-07-09T11:51:00.000-07:00

Pitching wars (or why Silva is teh suck)

Lots of fun today in the Mariner blogosphere as Baker defends his position on comma... err sinker ra... err mechanical adju... err I'm not really sure what he's defending.

It's been written many times you cannot rely on pinpoint command as a requirement for being a successful pitcher. You just can't. I keep coming back to golf because anyone who's played can relate.

Let's say the US Open is about to begin, and an analyst says for Player A to win, he needs to hit every fairway and green in regulation to have a chance. In other words, perfect command of where the ball is going.

But is that realistic? Certainly not. Look at the winners of major golf championships and you'll see even the champion misses 3 of 10 fairways over the course of 4 days. To expect perfection is ridiculous. We've all seen Tiger Woods crank the ball over the gallery and land on a cart path with his driver and still par the hole. He possesses the talent and ability to overcome a mistake.

It's no different for a pitcher. You can't expect perfection on every pitch, or some sort of extreme movement brought on by a simple adjustment midseason that is so great it can't be measured! Pitchers leave balls over the plate all the time. Hell, watch Brandon Morrow throw fastballs basically right over the middle of the plate multiple times during an appearance. When the batter swings and misses it's a great pitch. When they hit a home run the analyst says he made a mistake!

Now Morrow possesses movement and speed on his fastball that a guy like Silva or Washburn can never match. We understand not all pitchers succeed in the same way. But we can categorize pitchers into those that have stuff and cause hitters to miss, and those that try to let the batter put the ball in play and get themselves out. Silva and Washburn are clearly in the latter group, and no amount of command or simple adjustment is going to transform them midseason.

Do we really believe GM's are looking at Washburn and saying "Gosh, I'll ignore the lousy offenses he's faced and the fact he's a pitch to contact guy who'll always be streaky, instead I'll look purely on the results of the past X games and cross my fingers..."

Who believes clubs are calling and giving the M's legitimate trade offers for Washburn and the club is turning them down?

Instead, a more realistic scenario sees GM's call the M's and say "I'll give you my bag of crap for yours" or "I'll take that bag of crap off your hands if you include a bunch of money..." type of conversations.

We all remember Jeff Cirillo. He was a complete disaster in Seattle, but the club traded him. If Cirillo can be traded, certainly Washburn can too. But it won't be because he had a few good starts in a row- teams in baseball not run by Bavasi are smarter than that. They'll take him off our hands if we bring his pay more in line with what it should be- say $1 million or whatever a Ryan Franklin type pitcher should be getting (certainly not $48 million like Silva)!

The reality is fans today aren't going to fall for the old "banana in the tailpipe" trick any more than they are "Silva is a Transformer!!" type of articles/analysis.

2008-07-08T13:08:00.000-07:00

Bedard unlikely to leave team this summer

For a team that refuses to release Sexson, it's hard to believe they would trade Bedard and get only pennies on the dollar compared to what they just gave up to get him.

For any GM, whether incoming or incumbent, you face the same problem.

Does the player (s) you get in return beat having a lefty starter in your rotation next year with a sub 4.00 ERA?

If not, then you don't make that trade. While it's true the team has huge holes, trading Bedard only opens another. Who replaces him in the rotation next year?

The only way the team gets Bedard off the roster is if a team is desperate and throws a ton of major league ready prospects at them. (Basically give the Mariners what the Orioles got for him this past winter.) But how likely is that?

To get an All-Star caliber reliever. A starting CF who is dirt cheap and gets better by the week. And three additional prospects including the best pitcher in the farm system. That is a HAUL.

In other words, we would need a Bavasi out there somewhere who is so desperate he gives up the farm for Bedard.

I'd put the odds of Bedard being traded this month at about 5%.

2008-07-07T23:42:00.001-07:00

Pretty sure offense matters too...

Whenever the team trots out Bloomquist in center field and can't score runs, I'm reminded of the silly comment casual fans like to say-- "pitching wins championships." It sounds like something Yogi would say. Kind of like "good teams beat bad teams" or something similar.

Over at the excellent Replacement Level Yankees web site, they have been going over each position in the AL to see where they rank respective to their peers. Needless to say, the Mariners are not faring too well.

Dead last in the AL for their position:
Vidro- DH
Lopez- 2nd
Johjima- C

Near the bottom-
Betancourt- SS bottom half
Ibanez- LF 4th worst in Al

So five of the nine positions and the Mariners are running dead weight out on the field on a consistent basis. The report isn't done yet for first base. Any ideas where Ritchie might fall?

Think about. The Mariners are running the worst players in the AL at 4 positions!!! Most teams couldn't suck that bad at roster construction if they tried. Dead last, some by quite a bit.

The only player ranked near the top is Adrian Beltre. (I'm guessing Ichiro will be middle of the pack at best.)

The current team management continues to run out some of the worst players at their position, and appears incapable of doing anything about it. They are the laughingstock of baseball and continue to earn our scorn until they actually try to improve this team.

2008-07-07T09:54:00.001-07:00

M's deserved to lose 15 inning game

As a Mariner fan you never want to feel like your team threw a game away, but really the team did not deserve to win. Any time the Front Office puts a lineup on the field that includes Sexson, Cairo, Bloomie, Burke, Vidro etc... they simply don't deserve the W.

In a sad way, I actually fear the team winning when the put lineups like this on the field. If management continues to think Willie and his "grit" are the keys to winning, they will continue to make poor decisions on future rosters.

This team has three catchers. Why?

This team continues to let Sexson embarrass himself. Why?

This team continues to play Vidro at clean up. Why?

The team lost last night, almost on purpose. Sorry if you paid good money expecting a miracle.

2008-07-02T15:59:00.000-07:00

Morrow continues to impress

Brandon Morrow and Felix Hernandez are far and away the two brightest stars on this team. Ichiro is fun to watch and his quotes are hilarious, but he is infinitely more interesting when hitting well over .300 in games that matter.

Felix we all know about.

Morrow is the guy we want to know about but the team won't let us. How would Morrow do pitching in the 6th inning? Can he maintain his fastball and dial it up whenever he needs to like Chamberlain? Are his offspeed pitches really coming along or just show-me pitches to keep the hitters off balance? Can he be a dominant starter? Can he be relied upon and avoid injuries?

We don't know, and the timetable for when we do is still a long ways off. Instead of pitching in the minors like he should, Morrow pitches exciting but useless games during a lost season. The biggest enemy facing Morrow's development as a major league starter is innings.

Let's suppose you are in the camp of letting Morrow get a crack in the starting rotation next spring. Sounds reasonable enough, and is likely what the club is thinking too. But Morrow has never pitched 100 innings before. Is the club going to put Morrow in the starting rotation next year and then shut him down when August rolls around? If Morrow is as effective as his supporters think he will be, his season ending innings total would easily approach 200 innings. There's no way the team can let him get close to that number.

The knock on Lincecum was he was an injury risk and threw too many innings in college. The upside was he was major league ready. Morrow is in many ways the mirror opposite. He never threw many innings in college so he needs work as he builds up to a 162 game schedule. How exactly will that happen by pitching 1 inning a game?

By keeping him in the bullpen and only pitching an inning at a time, you get Morrow really gaudy stats but you make the long term picture murky. Send Morrow down or figure out a plan to get him more innings on the club right now. The current plan is bad for the team and for Morrow's future.

Free Morrow and get him out of this fun to watch but useless one inning role.

2008-06-28T18:48:00.000-07:00

Pitcher command

Some people have made the argument Washburn is pitching better recently because his command has improved. Dave at USS Mariner made a point documenting his pitching hasn't really changed at all, while Geoff at the Times thinks it has.

As a casual fan, it's easy to think pitchers can become better because of a sudden gain of command. Whether this gain comes because they are trying harder, make a mechanical adjustment, injury goes away etc... it doesn't matter as long as the command is there.

The reality is pitchers have to live with less than optimum command all the time. A good analogy is golf.

Any one who has played golf can tell you some days you have it and some days you have no idea where the balls going. You can hit great warming up on the driving range and suddenly lose it during a round. It's part of the game.

Tiger Woods struggles with his command just like an 18 handicapper. The hacker loses it and puts in the 2nd fairway over 30 yards from the tee. Tiger loses his command and places in on the golf cart path. The difference is the hacker is 350 yards from the green while Tiger drove his "mistake" 270 yards and has a mid-iron to the green. The professional golfer has the talent to recover from his mistakes, and possesses the ability and confidence to turn a poor drive into a manageable event.

Washburn is closer to the hacker. There may be days when he really is putting the ball where it needs to be. The problem is this is not a repeatable skill. Pitchers need to have the raw skills and talent to challenge batters even when they don't have their best stuff.

Washburn will start to suck again very soon. Part of it is due to not facing the worst hitting teams in the league. The rest is due to his "command" disappearing.

Some fans may wonder what makes a guy like Greg Maddux so special. He can't hit 90 mph on the radar gun, but he has outstanding command. There are very few pitchers who can so consistently live off of their ability to locate pitches, and Maddux is obviously a first-ballot HOF candidate.

Washburn (Or Silva tonight) didn't suddenly reinvent themselves. They don't possess the ability to consistently make hitters miss and they can't rely on pin-point command. They are pitch to contact starters who will have good games and terrible games, and really be the same pitcher in both. I know the press and broadcasters will try to convince you otherwise but don't fall for it.

Washburn is what he is, and he didn't ingest a magic pill or fix a flaw in his mechanics the past few weeks no matter what the papers say.

2008-06-25T17:11:00.000-07:00

Riggleman clearly has issues

A casual fan may wonder if McLaren was really the problem. The team took 2 of 3 against the Mets and actually scored some runs along the way. It's easy to jump to conclusions after a few games, but there are enough warning signs to question Riggleman as a manager even with a few wins under the belt.

Exhibit A is Willie Bloomquist.

The facts are damning. He has ZERO power. He doesn't hit for average.

Do I need anything else? If you play baseball and you don't stand on a mound, those are really bad things. The fact he is gaining playing time while setting a Mariner record for power futility is amazing.

Despite what the scouting report for Willie says, Riggleman starts him. He could play Reed and try to figure out if he has a future in a Mariner uniform next year, but instead chooses to keep playing the older journeyman with no long term future.

Forget about sabremetrics or scouting. Riggleman shares a common problem with McLaren- he can't evaluate talent and instead reaches for intangibles that don't show up in the box score but are apparently more important than things like "hits" or "runs."

I rest my case on Riggleman. Exhibit A is damning enough for me.

2008-06-23T11:48:00.000-07:00

Willie Bloomquist

Regular readers of baseball blogs know Willie has set a team record for most at-bats without an extra base hit. How many times does this get mentioned in the local papers?

I mention this because every time I see Reed on the bench and Bloomie playing my anger level rises, and I feel like the local papers are giving the team a free pass on this obviously terrible move.
Willie and Cairo are pretty much the same player, but the local boy gets extra love for really no particular reason. He is one of the worst hitting players in baseball, yet continues to get a pass from his team, his manager and seemingly his press corps. While he sounds like a nice enough guy, this isn't about Willie as a person. This is about a team continuing to trot out a player who has no future as a Mariner. If the Mariners are serious about getting better, they need to stop wasting at bats to Mr. Ballgame and get Reed in the line up every chance they get.

As Bloomquist continues on his record setting ways, perhaps the local press can stop the fawning for a second and focus on why a team makers terrible managerial decisions on a regular basis. Larry Stone will touch on it during a blog update, but the paper copy carries no mention of the "curious" lineup choices.

Stop the Willie madness if you are at all serious about getting better next year.

2008-06-20T17:16:00.000-07:00

McLaren still doesn't get it

Remember when Geoff Baker tried to make a big deal about Felix not sticking around for an interview after a poor outing?

I was reminded of it listening to John McLaren's conference call with reporters today. Rather than focus on the obvious-
- Sexson is finished as a 1st basemen for the Mariners
- Vidro is the worst DH in baseball
- Silva is pitching terribly
- Washburn can't win a game at home
- etc...

He chooses to look back on things like club house chemistry. Instead of focusing on the balding tires or leaky engine at the used-car sales lot, he places his attention on the pine tree air freshener when making his decision.

What McLaren could have said was what 99% of the fans would have said in his place. We knew going in to the season we had to have a lot of things go right. Bedard had to be healthy and pitch like an ace. Sexson had to rebound from a terrible outing. Vidro had to hit like he did in the second half of last season.

He doesn't have to throw people under a bus, but he can be honest about what this team needed to happen for it to be successful.

McLaren still has no idea why this team is terrible.

That's why he no longer deserves to be the manager of the Seattle Mariners.

2008-06-19T10:47:00.000-07:00

McLaren had to go

I thought Sexson would be gone first, but frankly McLaren was getting to be an even bigger problem than Ritchie's double plays.

The last thing the team needs is to make an even bigger mess in the club house. McLaren's move to make Ichiro a right-fielder made the team worse, and now adds to the combustible material a new manager will face.

When a competent manager is put in place, do you then tell Ichiro to march back to center? Does this hurt the relationship between your star player and the new manager?

McLaren created this problem, and he chose to do it on the day his boss got canned. He also did it without consulting with his new boss, which in my mind is career suicide.

McLaren was a lousy manager. We said it all last year watching him manage the game. Bullpen use. Substitution use. Bench use. Catcher use. You name it, he sucked at it.

But the decision on his own to move Ichiro to right field should have been the nail in the coffin for his short managerial career.

2008-06-18T11:45:00.001-07:00

Sexson won't last the week

The rumblings from the team seem to suggest Sexson will be cut loose shortly. I imagine our new GM is finding out the same thing Bavasi did- no one will touch his salary and they are going to have to out right release him. I expect the news to come out shortly... like in a matter of days if not hours that Sexson is out.

Meanwhile, speculation continues on who our next GM will be. Because the hiring won't take place until after the season, and likely after the WS, this is going to be a story that will get old quickly. No information from Lincoln and company will lead all of us to speculate and it won't be until the fall when we finally get answers.

Will Armstrong be open to younger voices? Does he even understand what the use of newer statistical methods to evaluate players has meant to the game? Does he realize Santana was traded for less than what Bedard pulled in and it has nothing to do with "make-up" or attitude? Can he accurately explain the differences between Bedard and Santana and why the trade market was different for both?

A good boss doesn't have to have detailed information about every operation in a company. But they do need a decent understanding of the business universe they compete in. We have no idea if Lincoln and Armstrong have kept up... we'll find out later this year.

There already are lines being drawn among Mariner fans, and I suspect they will look similar to the Bedard trade divisions we saw this spring. Those that wanted Bedard and his "ace" status will argue a pure stathead is not needed and will look for more conventional hires. Baker does a real questionable job over the GM search at his blog, and it reads much like his arguments for Bedard.

It's great to read Geoff's thoughts and I love his blog, but man he gets sidetracked by his Toronto days some times. Yes, no one is arguing hiring a guy who is proclaimed to be a "stat head" will guarantee success. Yes, J.P. Ricciardi has made mistakes. He works in a division where Boston and NY loom, and he was a first-time GM when he took the job. NO ONE is arguing a pure stats approach will guarantee success.

But I can guarantee you a "stat head" would have avoided Bavasi throwing $99 million at Zito. And he would have dealt with Sexson a lot sooner.

What the M's need is a strong system that leverages its advantages (Safeco field, revenue) and doesn't rely on a single savior who will magically make the team better.

Baker was told before the season the Rays were going to surprise some people. He was also told Oakland might not be as bad as he thinks, and Texas with Daniels at the helm is making strong progress. Baker disregarded this information before, and he appears to do it again when he dismisses the Rays recent success as simply the benefit of sucking for a long time. Call up the Pirates some time and ask if it really is that simple.

The team needs to learn from its mistakes. So do the fans who thought this team was only an ace away from competing this year. If we make mistakes, we need to admit and learn from them.

The search for GM will reveal who has learned what from this season.

2008-06-16T12:16:00.000-07:00

Finally

Bavasi Fired

Oh how we've waited to see that headline.

C'mon now Lincoln. Don't screw this up. Your next hire is going to define the Mariner future for many, many years. Don't hire Bavasi 2.0

But we'll worry about that later. For now, peace has been restored in the Mariner universe.

2008-06-16T11:57:00.000-07:00

Good thing Morrow is available to save games

When you have the worst record in baseball, how valuable is a closer?

I would argue not very. Would it be great to have a lock-down, lights out closer on any team? Sure.

But for most baseball teams, when facing a rebuild the first thing they look to spin is the bullpen guys. They have value and are simply are a luxury compared to finding lefty power bats and starting pitchers.

The Mariners are watching Morrow rot in the role of "closer" when they should be investing in their future by getting him back to the rotation.

The Front Office is faced with a simple question. When you have the worst record in baseball, is your priority the long term health of the club, or do you focus on short term goals?

It's been apparent which way the present management team leans. They have the choice now to prepare Morrow for next season as a starter. Every day they delay is costing them valuable time.

Release Sexson.
Move Morrow to AA as a starter.

How can they not see this?

It's like they don't realize there will be a season in 2009.

2008-06-13T11:50:00.000-07:00

Not much to say

The team is stuck in a public relations nightmare. The present team has no hope of getting better and the minors are devoid of much immediate help. Other teams are only beginning to start thinking about making serious trades, and the Mariners have little to offer given their worst-record status.

Until there is a shake up in management, how much change can we really expect?

Sure, we still have Felix. And Ichiro is still entertaining. But things don't really get interesting until Bavasi and McLaren are gone, and we have no idea when that will be.

Let's hope Lincoln and company have a plan besides watching this team continue a death spiral.

2008-06-10T09:50:00.000-07:00

McLaren benches Reed

To further highlight how this team treats rookies and veterans, Jeremy Reed gets sent to the bench because he was picked off while straying from the bag. On the same night Ibanez drops a routine fly ball and stays in the game, Reed gets benched. On the same night Ritchie drops a foul ball and two-hops a throw to home (!) on a relay, Reed gets benched.

I'll never complain about a win, but the Mariners "defense" last night was literally laugh-out-loud funny. This is after McLaren has a team meeting about doing the little things.

The firing of this teams management cannot come soon enough.

2008-06-09T15:23:00.000-07:00

Elia as interim manager

When McLaren is finally fired (a mercy firing if there ever was one), Elia will be a good fit as an interim manager. The team will want to wait until after the season to can Bavasi, so having a stop-gap until a new regime is named makes a lot of sense. That's how I read the story of Elia taking over as hitting coach today.

There is no way if the team continues to lose 2 of 3 games the manager survives much longer. I predicted the All Star break for Johny-Mac. There really isn't anyone on the current staff who is the logical replacement for an interim manager, but Elia can fill that role easily.

Today's firing is a step in the right direction of the complete over haul about to begin.

2008-06-06T13:48:00.000-07:00

At least we have Felix

After a generally terrible first day draft for the Mariners, it's time we have something a little more fun to talk about. Felix.

Yes, it's true his starts have been spotty. He still can't figure out the proper ratio of fastballs to offspeed stuff. His walks are up. His strikeouts are down. His groundball percentage is down.

When you watch him, he still has electric stuff most nights. The key is still his command, and whether he has it on a particular night is usually the biggest factor on whether the team is assured a win or not.

This should be an exciting game. After all the fireworks from the Tampa series, plus injuries the boys in blue are catching the Sox and their annoying nation at the right time. The last game the team won was coincidentally Felix's last start.

Felix is the teams best hope. The most untouchable player on the team. He's just 22 years old and is the shining beacon of light for the next few seasons. If you watch any game this weekend it should be tonight.

2008-06-05T13:33:00.000-07:00

How Bavasi screws up drafts

Some say the scouting department is allowed to run the draft independent of the front office. That Bavasi has brought much needed talent into the farm system.

Only the Mariners would:
- Turn Morrow in to a reliever. Even if the team was smart enough to take Lincecum, it's pretty obvious he would be in the bullpen as well. This is 100% due to Bavasi and his team. Think about it for a second. The team drafted a college starter with the #5 pick and immediately turned him in to a setup guy the next spring. This is like the Seahawks drafting one of the best college running backs and turning him in to a punt returner. If you would like to recreate this pick personally, take a twenty dollar bill to your nearest banking establishment and demand ten dollars in return. This is the world Bavasi and McLaren live in every day.
- Deny arbitration to Guillen. They knew they were likely trading Jones. They had no viable back up plan. They had ample evidence teams were willing to give him more than one year. By executing their "plan" the way they did, they cost themselves a supplemental pick the worst team in baseball sorely, sorely needs right now.
- Draft a college reliever. This pick is so stupid it boggles the mind. This team has no current corner infielder close to the majors in the farm system and know Beltre is likely gone after next year. They just watched a series with Jose Vidro batting clean up. They are about to release their 1st basemen and the biggest delay is simply the knowledge they have no on in the system any where near ready.

So they draft a reliever, probably the teams one strength right now.

Way to go Bill. Good thing we didn't fire your ass three weeks ago because it might impact the draft.

2008-06-05T12:43:00.000-07:00

Changes coming

The recent quotes by Bavasi were pretty much expected. He confirms, as we've been saying, to not expect many changes in the coming weeks. Very few teams are willing to deal right now, and the farm system is limited in how it can help the club.

The contrived "outburst" by McLaren was sad but expected when your team realizes it's going to have to start firing people. We know this team doesn't like change, but if the losing continues, and we see no reason why it won't, changes will be forced on them.

I expect both McLaren and Sexson will be gone by the All Star break. Ideally Sexson is cut this afternoon, but the team seems hell bent on giving this guy useless at bats in the hope he somehow creates a miracle.

Sexson being cut is a no brainer that the team will be forced to make shortly. If the team loses really badly and Ritchie continues to hit under .200 then he won't make it to the All Star break. At worst, they might try to string this out to the trading deadline in some futile attempt to gain some positive PR. (As much with their bosses as opposed to the public)

If the Mariners continue to lose series after series in the next two weeks, the team will be forced to fire McLaren as well, if for no other reason than to put him out of his own misery. The guy will soon have a nervous breakdown watching Vidro batting cleanup game after game. A merciful execution may be in order.

Once McLaren and Sexson are gone, the rest of the moves will be pretty predictable. Bavasi will be as good as gone by seasons end, and we'll all know it. He will attempt to get some value by moving as many players as he can by the trading deadline. I'm sure he and upper management will have an agreement on what the plan will be for the rest of the games and who can be traded and who will be untouchable. By September we'll be seeing the callups playing regularly and we'll be actively speculating on who is the next GM.

Who ever replaces McLaren will be interim until the new GM is hired. This season will be lost, not only on the field, but in the FO as well. Since the team won't fire Bavasi until after the season, and yet everyone will understand he is no longer in the future, the season will play out as a lame duck from an organizational perspective. Their won't be agreement on whether to tear down or do a minor rebuild, so the team will make small moves meant more to appease an angry fan base than actually improve the team long term.

That's how I see it playing out. McLaren watch is on. Sexson is the first every day player to get cut.

Go M's.

2008-06-03T09:43:00.000-07:00

Not much to do at this point...

But continue to watch this team lose on a regular basis. It's not like there is a magic bullet or star player who can turn it around. The Mariners have serious flaws on the team and the farm system is in no position to offer much help. What you see is what you get.

So what should the Mariners do?

Nothing earth shattering. The moves are so obvious and have been discussed for so long they come as no surprise.

Step one- DFA Vidro, Sexson and Cairo.
Step two- move Ibanez to DH.
Step three- play Reed and Wlad every day while you begin evaluating what either can offer you long term. Is Reed valuable as a 4th outfielder? Can Wlad learn to recognize pitches and hit for average? Time to start finding out.
Step four- Call up Clement and play him at DH when facing lefties. Alternate him and Joh behind the plate. Determine if Clement is a major league catcher or not.
Step five- work the phones on deals. See what value your players have to other teams.

This team is not going to be able to pad their win total like they did last September to try and please the casual fan. No one will care if they end up with 72 or 82 wins. The season was lost in May. Effective management would react immediately and start planning for the future.

Why give Sexson one more at bat this month? Is he in your teams plan next year? Is there any chance the team resigns Sexson for next year? If not, why play him and let him practice at the major league level?

Let some other team try and figure this guy out. Every day Sexson is on this team, it's basically impossible to believe this management group is even trying.

Lose Sexson, and let the future begin.

2008-05-29T15:24:00.000-07:00

How many players does it take?

The team actually wins two games in a row (gasp!) and the optimists are already stirring the pot by wondering aloud how many players it would take to turn this around.

Of course during the off season we heard Bedard was that one player, so you'll to excuse our pessimism on the subject. If a team is one player away, and then discover they are 2-3 players away, how far away were they in the first place... sounds like something you'd see on your SAT test in high school.

The key term we keep hearing repeated over and over is "regression to the mean"
Definition
Statistical tendency of a data series to gravitate towards the center of a distribution, provided it starts on the either end of the distribution and is free to fluctuate.

In other words, what comes around goes around. Just like Silva was not going to win the Cy Young after having a great start, we shouldn't be shocked to see the team win games from time to time. They are likely a .500 capable team like many suspected who are flawed but always have a chance when a Bedard or Fernandez take the hill. The fact they are so much worse is not shocking, as this is still a game played by humans.

Before the season, here's what a computer thought of the M's chances- link

You'll notice Diamond Mind's projections have the M's winning the division 6% of the time. You'll also notice some seasons the team wins 70 games.

The point is plenty of people and systems thought the M's would struggle this year. This particular projection was done for the AL East, meaning they weren't Mariner fans who were looking through rose colored glasses. An independent observer if you will.

We are now coming up on one third of the season. There's no more "its early" to point too. The scary part for me as a fan right now-

Bavasi is in charge of the draft
Bavasi is in charge of this team at the trading deadline
Bavasi is trying to save his job and will do anything he thinks might work, no matter the risk

This team will win some series. This team won't finish with 100 losses. But it's a lot more than one player away from competing in this division. Don't read too much into a 1-0 win at home...

2008-05-28T10:24:00.000-07:00

Chamberlain and Morrow

It's interesting to see the Mariners heads slowly start grasping new ideas by watching what other teams do. Is it a coincidence the Mariners are looking at moving Morrow to the rotation when Joba is about to do the same thing? After all, McLaren has come right out and said they are monitoring the Joba experiment and are "considering" making a similar move.

The problem is Chamberlain and Morrow are completely different pitchers and what works for one won't necessarily work for the other. Let's look at how they are similar-

Both are young
Both are first round draft picks (i.e. high expectations)
Both throw hard (97+ mph)
Both have great movement on their fastballs
Both started the season in the bullpen
Both have more value to their team has a starter in the long run (or we wouldn't be having this conversation)

So are they the same type of pitcher and would the Mariners be smart to copy the Yankees handling of Joba transitioning to the rotation? Let's look at the differences between the two.

Joba pitched in the minors as a starter
Joba has at least 3 quality pitches
Joba can throw pitches besides his fastball for strikes

This is where Joba and Morrow really show why they need to be treated differently. Joba is in the pen because the team feels they need to limit his innings. If he started the season in the rotation, he would reach his roughly 160 inning limit before September. The team would then be forced to shut him down right during the crucial playoff stretch.

Morrow on the other hand has no second pitch he can throw reliably for strikes. Joba's biggest hurdles right now are simply staying within a pitch count and stretching out his arm to return to his starting role.

If the M's think what works for Joba will also work for Morrow they are deluding themselves. At this stage in their development, Chamberlain would seem to be far more developed and is much closer to moving to the rotation. Both teams are in a desperate win now mode, but thinking Morrow can develop pitches while in the majors may permanently setback his career as a starter.

The smart thing for the Mariners is to ignore what the Yankees are doing and send Morrow to the minors to work as a starter. They also need to resist sending him to winter ball yet again, which only increases the workload on his arm and proves nothing as the level of opponents makes the exercise largely useless.

Joba is not Morrow. Hopefully the M's front office recognizes the differences and can make a smart decision in what has become a lost season.

2008-05-27T09:32:00.000-07:00

Media to blame for M's mess?

It's interesting to see Geoff Baker of the Times call out the team for not shaking things up. For not holding themselves accountable.

Shouldn't the local media do the same?

Let's step back to the offseason and try to put yourselves in Lincoln or Armstrong's shoes for a second. Did you hear any local media criticism of the Bedard deal? Did you hear any predictions for the team to struggle from the paper columnists? Any warning signs at all about the team scoring less runs last year than they gave up and how last season might have been a mirage?

We know there were plenty of credible sources who predicted this might be a long season for the Mariners. How this was a really risky move by Bavasi to count on this team. Consider what Bavasi was counting on-

Sexson coming back from a disastrous season.
Vidro coming back from a dreadful first half as a DH.
Ibanez to hit enough to replace his defensive deficiencies
Lopez coming back from a disastrous season
Wilkerson staying healthy
Wilkerson able to hit again after years of struggles
Yuni learning to walk and regain his defensive skills
Johjima not regressing as many catchers do in their thirties
Washburn would win again in Safeco
Oakland would be bad
Texas would be bad
The Angels would be impacted by injuries and not run away with the division
McLaren would learn on the job how to be a manager

I could go on. To say no one saw this coming is a stretch. Baker saw all of the above, and declared this team a contender who would win the division. He was wrong, just like Bavasi.

Would it have helped if he would have been more critical of the team during the offseason? Would it have helped if the local papers had listened to the critics and published their concerns to a wider audience? Would it have helped prevent Bavasi from speaking to reporters and getting a free pass when he said no analyst saw this collapse coming?

Of course we don't know. But we do know the same reporters who predicted a successful year just three months ago are now calling for changes. What exactly do they expect to see change? it sounds more like they want changes so they have something to write about.

The team cannot make any major trades in May. The list of teams who are open to making a move right now is very small- and Bavasi and his supporters traded off half the farm for our new "ace." The options are incredibly limited right now.

The team you see today is largely the team you are going to see for awhile. We all need to get used to it. And it would be nice if the media asked themselves if they are at all culpable for this mess by giving the team a free pass during the winter.

2008-05-23T17:19:00.000-07:00

Bedard gives up 5 runs to the Yankees?

As we watch the game, my eyes see Vidro with two hits and Bedard with five earned runs.

That's impossible?!!

Bedard is an ace. A top of the rotation pitcher. A TOR pitcher.

(I said that last part really slow so you understand just how important and special it is to have one of these.)

It is said by many when you have a TOR, you win games. And when you win games, you win more games. Get it?

They also are really handy because they stop all losing streaks. So handy you'll give up half your farm system to get one, instead of using your own guys.

This makes me a little shocked to see Bedard not pitching like a TOR. Did he get a bad catcher? Did he get thrown off by McLaren's ejection? Bad sushi?

When we do find out the excuses/reasons for his poor outing, just ask yourself one thing.

If a certain young, talented Latin pitcher gave up five runs tonight, would he be treated the same? Does he get to have the same excuses?

Just wondering.

2008-05-23T11:51:00.000-07:00

It's always the players

If the plan was sound, then it must be the players.

That is the strategy many are taking who predicted this season would see the team competing for the playoffs. It's too bad, because while denial is always the first step, I wonder if they will ever reach the second.

Looking back, the signs were everywhere. Computer predictions that had the Mariners not scoring runs. Data that showed this team was terribly defensively. Questions around Oakland and Texas that actually wondered if they would actually be terrible like many had assumed.

Now we have the data to show those signs were real. We do know the teams offense is awful. We have proof the defense is costing this team games. And we look up at Oakland and Texas and wonder if they will ever be caught in the standings.

Instead of acknowledging they overestimated the value of Bedard, they instead lash out at the players. The problem with this approach is you are doomed to repeat your mistake over and over again. You can claim Bedard is worth every penny you paid for him until you are blue in the face, but you miss the opportunity to learn.

Baker was wrong about this team. He was wrong about how this team was constructed, he was wrong about the players skills and he was wrong about McLaren. Bavasi was wrong, but the difference is we never get daily updates from him.

Maybe McLaren, Baker and Bavasi can start a support group. How the season of 2008 was lost because of the players.

Now is a great time to learn something. Blaming the players is the easy way out.