Mariners Analysis

Monday, April 12, 2004

Why the M's will struggle to win 90 games this year (and why the Yankees won't win 100)
During the offseason, the American League saw a number of clubs make significant upgrades over the winter. Teams I would say are clearly better include:

  • Baltimore
  • Detroit
  • Anaheim
  • Tampa Bay
  • Toronto

    Teams I would say are at least as strong as last year on paper, and are playoff caliber include:
    • New York
    • Boston
    • Oakland
    • Kansas City
    • Minnesota

    This isn't to say all these clubs will be good, but on paper they seem to be at least as good, and probably better than last year. The only teams you really wonder about are Cleveland, Texas and Chicago, who have the possibilty of being worse off than last year. ( I actually think Texas might be a surprise pick this year to improve, but you can't prove it after they gave away Alex to the Yanks over the offseason.)

    If you look at the M's, you'll have a hard time convincing me the team is "better" this year than last. In fact,, I bet if you could ask Bavasi he'd take last years 93 wins in a heartbeat and take his chances.

    The problem is that with very few "patsies" this year, teams are going to have a hard time racking up easy wins. Even the Yankees will have a hard time reaching 100 wins, simply because they have to play much more competitive teams this year. The order in the AL East may not change this year, but the level of play is FAR higher.

    That is one reason the M's won't repeat 93 wins, and why the Yanks will struggle to reach 100, even with a $180 million payroll.