Mariners Analysis

Monday, May 19, 2008

Veteran Entitlement

It sucks there's no game today, but in the meantime we can continue to debate the merits of Bavasi over the weekend. His decision to move Clement to AAA, insert Vidro back as the DH and sit Reed on the bench is a perfect example of how to drive fans crazy!

When your team has the worst record in the AL, you open your self up to criticism. We praised the team for recognizing the offense was in trouble when they jettisoned Wilkerson and brought up Clement and Wlad. We also feared they might make the mistake of judging rookies on ridiculous sample sizes.

Consider the last weeks line for Clement before he was sent down-
.250/.294/.500
An OPS of .794 is not great, but clearly headed in the right direction. The OPS for Vidro in his last seven games?

.750

So to summarize, the team decided that Clement was hitting better than Vidro for the past week, but needs time in AAA to get better. The same Jose Vidro who 3 weeks ago wasn't good enough to be the full time DH.

These moves are completely, utterly impossible to explain. Bavasi can't do it. Baker can't do it. McLaren can't do it.

The team started this season with the exact lineup they have now, only they have swapped Wlad in RF and put Reed on the bench. At best it's a tweak in the lineup that's based more on hopin', wishin' and prayin' than anything else.

While the team strokes their worry beads and hopes these band aids heal the gushing wounds, a larger issue remains.

Veteran entitlement.

As long as the team thinks it's fine to jerk kids around, play them out of position and sit on the bench while the vets are given leashes miles long, they will never compete on a regular basis. This team has no problem with Reed sitting on the bench, playing irregularly with a gun to AAA pointed to his head, but heaven forbid Ibanez would be moved to the DH position in the middle of the season!

Gasp.

The same 36 year old Ibanez who can't play the field and hit's lefties like your little sister has a different set of rules than rookies. If you started working in a place that behaved like this most of us would be out the door so fast McLaren would have to fill out his own damn TPS cover sheets. But instead, the team continues to judge rookies and play them under separate rules.

Baker can argue there is too much to lose to risk Ibanez playing DH.

I argue when you are in last place, what exactly are you risking?

Don't fall for it

Baker and the local papers may try and get fans thinking this series is important. That the team is in position to get back in the race.

It's a silly argument, and I doubt any one past the stage of casual fan would fall for it.

When the two worst teams in baseball (M's and Padres) collide someone has to win. The fact the team was pressed to win two of three with their best pitchers on the mound was telling. I'll also note the results Felix had this start was little different than his previous outing. The Padres can't hit for beans- exactly the opponent the M's can "handle." That's all we learned this weekend.

We now have Detroit, record wise the best team to compete with the Mariners for the title of biggest loser. Just like the Padres, some one has to win and I guess the local scribes can try to generate excitement from a series win.

I want to root for the team, but they are doing exactly what I hoped they wouldn't when then sent Clement down and are going with Vidro again. It was a mistake to make decisions based on 50 at-bats, but it's exactly what they are doing. With Vidro they have little upside, but in a "win now" mode Bavasi and McLaren apparently think this is their best shot.

Good luck with that guys. I'll be watching, but you'll need to do more than take 2 of 3 from the Padres before I become a believer.

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

No reason to pick on Felix

Last night Felix pitched 6 innings and gave up 2 earned runs. Normally that equals a win (and makes you millions of dollars if you can do it with any consistency).

Instead the Mariners booted the ball all over the place and lost 5-2. I'm not exactly sure what Baker and others were expecting- that Felix was supposed to hold the Rangers to 1 or fewer runs while at the same time playing left field?

With Felix pitching exactly like he did last night- wild, high pitch count, yet hanging on... the team could have easily won had they hit the ball and played a little defense.

The team did not display any offense and played some of the worst defense all season.

Baker can bitch about Felix all he wants but the reality is his post game demeanor had nothing to do with why the team lost the game last night. This team is really looking bad right now, and the train wreck continues. If an idiot blogger like myself wants to make stupid statements that's fine; but a person in a position like Baker who reaches thousands of fans needs to be more careful about what they write. Geoff is letting his personal predictions and investment in this team color his coverage.

It's not right, it's not fair and it really reflects poorly on those who think Felix was the problem last night.

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

A few good things out of a loss

At least last nights loss to Texas was entertaining; something we couldn't say about many previous games.

Many have written up some of the good- Joh, Morrow etc...

I'll throw in one more.

Bedard's supporters finally get to shut the hell up.

Ever since the "trade" we have heard all the great things about aces. They stop losing streaks. They protect the bullpen. They keep winning streaks. They shorten the game. Blah, blah, blah. All true, if you have a decent team that hits a little and plays some D.

But there has been another little subplot that some of the trade supporters like Baker like to throw out there. Basically they like to stereotype Felix as the young, hot head who can't handle the title of "ace" and Bedard as the exact opposite. Cold killer. Veteran. True ace.

We've seen Felix struggle his last few starts. Bedard has been good when he's healthy and actually on the field. So more than a few fans were rubbing their hands with glee last night when Bedard was given a 5 run lead before he even stepped on the field.

And then Bedard threw up all over his supporters and couldn't make it out of the 3rd inning.

Everything the trade supporters promised last night didn't happen. Bedard taxed the bullpen, cost them the game and should be causing general anxiety to every Mariner fan out there. He wasn't just bad. He looked terrible.

This from a guy who has historically been injured year after year and finally had one great season. The guy we gave up half our system for, who will be a free agent after next year and has the personality of a shoe. This is the guy we are supposed to tell Felix he should emulate.

Not good for Mariner fans, but at least this should quiet down the stuff about Felix and Bedard and slow down the stereotyping many fans like to make about the two "aces."

Monday, May 12, 2008

Finally a win

The consensus was the team needed to do well at home. Instead they won twice during the home stand and fell to the bottom of the AL. Instead of declaring them dead however, some still see hope because the Angels lost over the weekend too!

Sorry, but this is wishful thinking to an extreme. I know we all feel this team is better than they've shown (even the worst critics don't believe they are the worst team in baseball) but even Bavasi's mom has got to realize this team has serious flaws.

We all knew Sexson, Ibanez, Vidro and Lopez were question marks coming in to the season. Both Lopez and Ibanez are a mixed bag. Both are hitting, but their lack of defense negates much of what they bring to the table. Vidro and Sexson have been disasters.

So they won yesterday. Does that make Sexson any more likely to turn it around? Is Vidro suddenly going to hit for power? Is Washburn developing an out pitch all of a sudden?

This team is not going to lose every series. They will string together wins and give hopeless optimists reason to try and imagine them climbing back in to the race. But even with a 4 or 5 game win streak, the problems on this team will remain. I don't see how Baker or anyone else not related to Bavasi or McLaren can possibly pretend this team as presently constructed is ready to compete.

We are 25% of the way in to the season. The flaws have been exposed for all to see. Until they are patched/fixed this team isn't going any where.

Friday, May 09, 2008

Good time to get on the road

This team needs to get away from home and just think about baseball. Probably not easy to do when the papers and sports radio are calling for firings and shakeups. No matter what you thought of Bavasi or the Bedard trade, there is no way this team should be this bad.

If this continues, you really have to think there is some "culture" problem or losers attitude that has taken hold of this franchise. They came in to the season with high expectations, but faced with the slightest adversity they didn't just fade, they ran screaming into the night. Last night not withstanding, there appears little fight or leadership in this club.

Talent wins games, but even the most pessimistic fan couldn't have thought this team was the worst team in the AL. But here we are.

What must be killing the marketing dept isn't just the team is losing. It's losing in the most boring way possible. No blown saves. No killer, heartbreaking 8th inning comebacks. No, this team falls behind early and gives up.

Things will turn, and we hopefully have hit rock bottom.

But right now, this really is a train wreck of a club right now.

Thursday, May 08, 2008

Fingerpointing begins alright

Now that the team is starting to implode, the blame game steps in to high gear. Sites like Baker and DOV were very vocal about how good this team would be, and now sit in the position of having to defend their predictions.

I have always felt Baker would come around on his baseball views. You can see it in his use of statistics on this site. It won't be long and FIP+ will start getting mentioned in his blog updates.

What would be sad would be to simply blame this on the players. Yes the players always bear ultimate responsibility, as they are the ones on the field, but the warning signs for this team were crystal clear for anyone paying attention.

Any number of computer simulations of the season were run before opening day. Two things stood out for Mariner fans- our offense wasn't very good, and Oakland might not be as bad as the national media predicted.

It's kind of interesting how we are almost 25% into the season and those computer models are dead on. They aren't always or sports would be really boring, but as a fan you can't help but be fascinated when we went in to the season how it would play out.

Baker is already saying the correct moves were made. The pitching is better and the groundwork has been laid. Of course no mention of the famous "pitching wins championships" stuff we hear all off season. This team has great starting pitching most nights yet is in last place.

The fingerpointing begins and we haven't even hit summer yet.

Sunday, May 04, 2008

Silva blow up bound to happen

Regression to the mean. Those that thought Carlos would continue to be the ace of the staff would invariably be disappointed as his talent and numbers realign.

The real question at this point is will the team and fans give Clement and Wlad time to adjust to the big leagues. You can't make judgments based on 20-30 at bats, no matter how much McLaren and Bavasi want to save their jobs.

Things will go from bad to something much, much worse if the team does that.