Mariners Analysis

Wednesday, October 06, 2004

First round of playoffs going according to script

With Houston currently leading Atlanta, there have really been no surprises so far. We expected the Cardinals to beat up on LA. We expected Curt Schilling to dominate in the post season. We know Santana is the best pitcher in the AL since the All Star break. And I fully expect the Astros to finally win a series.

Tonight's game in NY is the one I'm most interested in watching. We know that last year the Twins took game 1 and went on to lose anyway. The key for the Twins is to take advantage of the Yankees pitching problems and put the pressure on them to win both in the Metrodome. Obviously the Twins feel like they have already accomplished their first goal- namely, gain a split and regain home field advantage. So far, mission accomplished. But winning today with Radke on the mound would really change the series. Right now, Jeter and the rest of the Yankees are hardly worried. They aren't feeling much pressure right now, and they still feel they are the better team (since let's face it, they are). But this is a race to win 3 of 5 games, and the Yankees will be under tremendous pressure if they lose tonight.

What are the implications for the Mariners if the Yanks get bounced in the first round? It would seemingly lead to larger changes than if they went to the WS again. I would expect more NY players to become available, and more free agents to be targeted by the Yankees if they lose. So tonights playoff game in NY just might have an outcome on who starts in Safeco next year for your Seattle Mariners.

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Regarding Howard Lincoln and his interview with Art Thiel in the PI. The claim that the M's are willing to lose "millions" to get this turned around is pure and utter crap. They have been making tens of millions the past few years, and stuffed it right back into their pockets. You could write an entire column on the M's accounting practices, but suffice it to say the M's ownership have profited nicely on their initial purchase price of the M's.

I started saying this earlier in the year, but the M's will make a record profit this year. Combine a high revenue stream with a low team budget and you have record profits.

It's simple really. The M's started the season with the second highest revenue stream in all of baseball. This is a fact. Now they will certainly not continue to be the second highest if they keep losing 100 games, but that is where they started. Most of the tickets this year were bought when the public thought they would be watching a competitive team. Combine this with an $82 million opening-day payroll, and you have record profits my friend.

Even with a lower overall attendance figure, the M's still will manage to pocket somewhere in the neighborhood of $20 million this season.

Let's say I'm wrong in my math and the M's actually only pocketed $10 million this year. (I don't think I am, but let's just pretend. Call it Sasaki money if you want.)

So let's imagine the M's go $4 million over budget next year. There is no honest, ethical way you can look someone in the eye and tell them you LOST money. You've been making money hand over fist the past few years, and you finally re-invested some of it back into the club. You didn't "lose" money.

Howard Lincoln truly believes we are all idiots, and will actually buy his load of crap. This is our ownership group. You gotta love these guys.