Sexson signing
First of all, let me start off by saying I am sure glad Koskie is going to the Blue Jays. He was a plan D as far as I'm concerned, and I'm glad he's off the table.
I also hope that Sexson fails his physical, but realize this is pretty unlikely. The M's brass know they are getting a hitter who missed the bulk of the season after major shoulder surgery, and are unlikely to be surprised by anything they find.
How did Bavasi find himself in this position?
The simple answer would seem to be market forces. In essence, the M's are paying more for Sexson than they thought they would pay for Delgado, but sensed they were getting close to missing out entirely on the slugger market.
Everyone knows the M's need power. The number of power hitters available each year is fairly small. At the top of the list would surely be Beltran or Beltre, but we all know those are Plan A/low-percentage signings. Players like Delgado and Sexson made up Plan B and B- respectively. The M's figured 3yrs at $24 million was reasonable for someone like Delgdao, allowing them to use the money that would have gone to Plan A to sign say a pitcher.
However the market prices changed everything. Suddenly Delgado is seeking 4 and 5 year deals for closer to $60 million. The M's are now looking at paying way more money for Sexson than they ever imagined. To put this in perspective, the M's are paying Ichiro money to a guy who has never been an MVP, and is coming off a serious injury.
I don't like this deal simply because the M's are taking on risk without enough reward. There are always first basemen who hit for power available. I am not convinced that Sexson will be that much better a first baseman than Ibanez. On a dollar for dollar basis, Ibanez would give you 80% production at 1/3 of the price. Bucky would make the numbers look crazy if you compare to Sexson.
I'm not saying you pencil in Bucky over Sexson, I'm just pointing out the M's are paying superstar money to a guy who is simply not a superstar. It will take money away from other areas in later years, and will only work if Sexson really does hit 40+ homers every year and stays heathly.
So we come back to Bavasi. He almost certainly has sensed that Delgado is getting out of his price range, and equally important wasn't jumping up and down to come to the NW. If you couldn't land Delgado, then Sexson will have to do.
If the M's sign Beltre, I'll be happy enough to forget about the Sexson signing. So we don't grade-out Bavasi's off season just yet, but so far the results are unimpressive. NW boy comes home will not win the AL West.
First of all, let me start off by saying I am sure glad Koskie is going to the Blue Jays. He was a plan D as far as I'm concerned, and I'm glad he's off the table.
I also hope that Sexson fails his physical, but realize this is pretty unlikely. The M's brass know they are getting a hitter who missed the bulk of the season after major shoulder surgery, and are unlikely to be surprised by anything they find.
How did Bavasi find himself in this position?
The simple answer would seem to be market forces. In essence, the M's are paying more for Sexson than they thought they would pay for Delgado, but sensed they were getting close to missing out entirely on the slugger market.
Everyone knows the M's need power. The number of power hitters available each year is fairly small. At the top of the list would surely be Beltran or Beltre, but we all know those are Plan A/low-percentage signings. Players like Delgado and Sexson made up Plan B and B- respectively. The M's figured 3yrs at $24 million was reasonable for someone like Delgdao, allowing them to use the money that would have gone to Plan A to sign say a pitcher.
However the market prices changed everything. Suddenly Delgado is seeking 4 and 5 year deals for closer to $60 million. The M's are now looking at paying way more money for Sexson than they ever imagined. To put this in perspective, the M's are paying Ichiro money to a guy who has never been an MVP, and is coming off a serious injury.
I don't like this deal simply because the M's are taking on risk without enough reward. There are always first basemen who hit for power available. I am not convinced that Sexson will be that much better a first baseman than Ibanez. On a dollar for dollar basis, Ibanez would give you 80% production at 1/3 of the price. Bucky would make the numbers look crazy if you compare to Sexson.
I'm not saying you pencil in Bucky over Sexson, I'm just pointing out the M's are paying superstar money to a guy who is simply not a superstar. It will take money away from other areas in later years, and will only work if Sexson really does hit 40+ homers every year and stays heathly.
So we come back to Bavasi. He almost certainly has sensed that Delgado is getting out of his price range, and equally important wasn't jumping up and down to come to the NW. If you couldn't land Delgado, then Sexson will have to do.
If the M's sign Beltre, I'll be happy enough to forget about the Sexson signing. So we don't grade-out Bavasi's off season just yet, but so far the results are unimpressive. NW boy comes home will not win the AL West.
posted by Tom at
11:45 AM
