Mariners Analysis

Tuesday, January 18, 2005

Trade Randy Winn now

As part two of the M's need pitching theme, I think we all need to consider moving Randy Winn before the season. I like him on the team, but it is unlikely his value will ever be higher than it is today.

The M's have a major commitment to Reed. He has nothing to prove in AAA- he showed plenty of potential during his September callup. I railed against Melvin for not playing Reed more in September, but the desire to not lose 100 games overcame any desire to get him more playing time.

Last year the M's traded away Freddy Garcia, who would be the #1 pitcher on the M's staff this year. He was the most effective pitcher for the M's last year. You trade a guy like Freddy, you'd better get something in return. So far we have a catcher who can't catch, and a guy (Morse) who can't figure out how to not get suspended to show for the trade besides Reed. You'd better believe the M's have an investment in Reed.

So if you plug Reed in Center, or put Reed in LF, either way you don't need Randy Winn. Ibanez needs to play LF, because he has little trade value and blocks Bucky at DH. Teams coming off 99 loss seasons don't carry guys like Winn as a 4th outfielder. Not when they haven't made a single pitching acquisition during the offseason.

We know Randy typically starts slowly. We know teams are looking for outfielders. His trade value will never be higher than it is today. His presence today either blocks Reed or blocks Bucky. The old adage you have to give up value to get something of value in return is still true- trade him while you have the chance.