Expectations for the M's this year
Now is the time of year we all try to guess how many wins our favorite baseball team will collect. National sportswriters, bloggers, casual fans and GM's all try to figure out what to expect from the assembled squads taking the field opening day.
There are two things that complicate trying to figure out the M's win column this year.
First, expectations depend on your idea of success. And success is a product of expectation.
Consider the Red Sox or Yankees. Fans of both EXPECT the playoffs this year. If either team were to win 89 games and miss the playoffs, fans would be extremely disappointed. In fact in NY, many people would lose their job. For many Yanks/Sox fans, the only question to be answered during the regular season is who wins the division and who wins the wildcard.
On the other hand, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays would be THRILLED with 89 wins. Huge success, as would Baltimore. We all understand the baseball landscape is not level, and expectations for teams are different.
For the Mariners, you have to decide if last year was an aberration, or a true indication of how bad the team really was. We have heard Bavasi talk about "bad luck" and down years for players. We have heard others describe a team poorly put together- old players on the downslope of their careers, for example.
This affects how people view this years team. Casual observers like Rob Neyer and Peter Gammons look at the M's and see a team trying to come back from a 99 losses. Traditionally teams that lose this many games view the next years goal as simply getting to .500. That is why many baseball knowledgeable people like Neyer predict something like 78 wins this year. They see an improved offense, but no pitching changes and figure the M's will struggle. I mean, how many teams in baseball have almost $100 million in payroll and national expectations of 78 wins?
Other people closer to the M's might see last year differently. They see a club that started slowly and then sank after playing too many AAA callups. New manager, new sluggers and new year equals new outlook for '05. This type of observer predicts something like 85-88 wins for the M's. With a few breaks here and there, the playoffs are not out of the question.
Notice this has nothing to do with statistics.
Now for the second complication on expectations.
Namely, no one has any Friggin idea how this team will do. As an example, I present our very own Seattle Supersonics.
If you are not a basketball fan, a quick refresher. The Sonics have stunk the last few years. During the offseason, they made no major moves and were picked by everyone to finish near the bottom of the NBA standings. NO ONE would have been surprised if they won 30 games this year. I expected mid-20's in the win column. Not even the coach thought they would be any good this year.
In fact, you would be going out on a limb if you said the Sonics would compete for the 8th playoff spot in the Western Conference. If you came out in print and predicted the Sonics would win 50 games, you would have been laughed at. There were NO statistics, no analysis, no history to draw on that would have shown any reason for the Sonics to be good this year. The general consensus among fans and media were cheap owners, suspect coach, bad front office etc.. The coach is in the last year of his contract, as is the star player (Ray Allen). There were 100 reasons why this team would be bad this year.
And yet, the Sonics aren't bad. In fact, they have the 3rd best record in the Western Conference right now. They could still win 60 games!! Winning over 50 is a given. The team no one thought would be good, actually is very good. So good, they have a realistic chance of playing in the NBA finals, with home court advantage!!!
Now I know basketball is not baseball, but who would have predicted the Florida Marlins WS a few years ago? Or Arizona?
The wonderful truth about the Mariners this year is no one has any idea how good they will be. Who predicted 99 losses for last year?
Anyone?
So guessing how the M's will do this year is just a fun exercise, but it is truly just a guess. It's not a question of "breaking it down" or looking at spreadsheets all day. There are simply too many unknowns.
If I had to guess, I'd say the M's will win between 82-84 games. But I admit, it is just a guess, as is anyone elses.
So enjoy the season, and if someone thinks the M's will win the World Series, don't laugh. Their guess is about as good as yours.
Now is the time of year we all try to guess how many wins our favorite baseball team will collect. National sportswriters, bloggers, casual fans and GM's all try to figure out what to expect from the assembled squads taking the field opening day.
There are two things that complicate trying to figure out the M's win column this year.
First, expectations depend on your idea of success. And success is a product of expectation.
Consider the Red Sox or Yankees. Fans of both EXPECT the playoffs this year. If either team were to win 89 games and miss the playoffs, fans would be extremely disappointed. In fact in NY, many people would lose their job. For many Yanks/Sox fans, the only question to be answered during the regular season is who wins the division and who wins the wildcard.
On the other hand, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays would be THRILLED with 89 wins. Huge success, as would Baltimore. We all understand the baseball landscape is not level, and expectations for teams are different.
For the Mariners, you have to decide if last year was an aberration, or a true indication of how bad the team really was. We have heard Bavasi talk about "bad luck" and down years for players. We have heard others describe a team poorly put together- old players on the downslope of their careers, for example.
This affects how people view this years team. Casual observers like Rob Neyer and Peter Gammons look at the M's and see a team trying to come back from a 99 losses. Traditionally teams that lose this many games view the next years goal as simply getting to .500. That is why many baseball knowledgeable people like Neyer predict something like 78 wins this year. They see an improved offense, but no pitching changes and figure the M's will struggle. I mean, how many teams in baseball have almost $100 million in payroll and national expectations of 78 wins?
Other people closer to the M's might see last year differently. They see a club that started slowly and then sank after playing too many AAA callups. New manager, new sluggers and new year equals new outlook for '05. This type of observer predicts something like 85-88 wins for the M's. With a few breaks here and there, the playoffs are not out of the question.
Notice this has nothing to do with statistics.
Now for the second complication on expectations.
Namely, no one has any Friggin idea how this team will do. As an example, I present our very own Seattle Supersonics.
If you are not a basketball fan, a quick refresher. The Sonics have stunk the last few years. During the offseason, they made no major moves and were picked by everyone to finish near the bottom of the NBA standings. NO ONE would have been surprised if they won 30 games this year. I expected mid-20's in the win column. Not even the coach thought they would be any good this year.
In fact, you would be going out on a limb if you said the Sonics would compete for the 8th playoff spot in the Western Conference. If you came out in print and predicted the Sonics would win 50 games, you would have been laughed at. There were NO statistics, no analysis, no history to draw on that would have shown any reason for the Sonics to be good this year. The general consensus among fans and media were cheap owners, suspect coach, bad front office etc.. The coach is in the last year of his contract, as is the star player (Ray Allen). There were 100 reasons why this team would be bad this year.
And yet, the Sonics aren't bad. In fact, they have the 3rd best record in the Western Conference right now. They could still win 60 games!! Winning over 50 is a given. The team no one thought would be good, actually is very good. So good, they have a realistic chance of playing in the NBA finals, with home court advantage!!!
Now I know basketball is not baseball, but who would have predicted the Florida Marlins WS a few years ago? Or Arizona?
The wonderful truth about the Mariners this year is no one has any idea how good they will be. Who predicted 99 losses for last year?
Anyone?
So guessing how the M's will do this year is just a fun exercise, but it is truly just a guess. It's not a question of "breaking it down" or looking at spreadsheets all day. There are simply too many unknowns.
If I had to guess, I'd say the M's will win between 82-84 games. But I admit, it is just a guess, as is anyone elses.
So enjoy the season, and if someone thinks the M's will win the World Series, don't laugh. Their guess is about as good as yours.
posted by Tom at
2:06 PM
