Mariners Analysis

Friday, August 26, 2005

Hargrove, Torre and pitch counts...

A few days back, a mini-firestorm surfaced when Hargrove mentioned he might limit Felix to 125 pitches in a game. Many rightly felt Hargrove sounded like an ass- namely, he was putting meaningless wear and tear on a young arm during a lost season.

It is hard to defend Hargrove if he actually lets Felix throw 125 pitches in a game. Sure, it probably would have no affect, but why take the chance? It's like going back in time and letting a young Griffey or A-Rod risk an injury, knowing they are the future of the franchise. It simply makes no sense.

The reason Hargrove would do it of course is if he thought it would win him the game. Managers only care about winning games today, not protecting future arms. For a perfect example of this, look no further than our good buddy Joe Torre.

Is there a manager more on the hot seat than Joe Torre? Probably not. He is under amazing pressure as simply the first $200 million manager who might not make the post season. He wants to win now. He has to win now. Next year is next year.

Torre has long been accused of wearing out his bullpen, so when October comes along his arms are shot. He is doing it again this year- only not limited to the pen.

The smartest pickup in baseball this past trading deadline has been Shawn Chacon. For a guy who was picked up off the scrap heap that is Colorado pitching, he has managed a 1.80 ERA in six starts. He just pitched the Yanks to yet another win over Toronto.

And his pitch count? 127 pitches the game before last, and then 119!

History says Chacon is due a drop off. No clear cut evidence high pitch counts lead to injury, but lots of evidence to suggest high pitch counts lead to bad next starts.

The month of September will see the Yanks playing high-stakes baseball every game. Their best pitcher this past month has been Chacon. Let's keep an eye on him, and see if Torre's pitch count strategy comes back to bite him.

History says it will.