Mariners Analysis

Tuesday, December 13, 2005

Reed unlikely to be traded

The odds are high Jeremy Reed is an M this spring. The reason is simple.

The M's have no one else to play CF.

The reason his name is coming up is because either NY or Boston is going to be missing a CF. One of them will certainly sign Damon which means the other will be left out. Hence the rumors coming out of Boston and NY about Reed.

Like that elusive #1 starter, the number of quality CF's is pretty limited, and the number actually available even smaller. Plenty of NY fans last winter couldn't believe they passed on Beltran. They knew guys like that don't come along very often. Will George and crew really run out Bubba Crosby every day? Please.

If Bavasi did trade Reed to get the pitching he desires, it only works if he were to get a youngster in return. If he has to take on salary for the pitcher and then has to go to the free agent market to get a CF or RF (if Ichiro slides) then he will blow his budget. And Bavasi doesn't have much left as it is.

If salary were not an issue, then a Reed swap for a Pavano or Clement might make sense. But salary does matter. And if Reed's defense actually improves, and he hits like we think he can, this would go down as one of the worst trades since Varitek and Lowe.

So I have to believe Bavasi will not trade Reed for a veteran pitcher. It just doesn't add up. If he wants to add pitching, he's going to need to go the free agent route, or make a trade using something he has in excess (relief pitching).

As much as we grumbled about Reed's bat last summer, the fact is he has value. That should make us feel better about '06 and beyond.