If M's lose, who gets canned first?

With the new year upon us, projections for 2006 will be gearing up. As an M's fan, it will be hard to be terribly optimistic with the present team. Granted we don't know what changes might occur between now and Opening Day, but as of right now one would be hard pressed to believe the M's are any better than .500, and a long shot to win the West.

But we'll save projections for another day... right now let's focus on a subject that has been touched on, but still isn't completely clear.

If the M's start out the year losing again, who gets fired first?

Bavasi or Hargrove?

Many people feel Bavasi is on the hot seat. The common source of information for this theory is Bill himself. (He has gone on record as saying if he doesn't turn this around, he is as good as gone.) But does Lincoln agree with this?

When the M's were winning 116 games, Lincoln was giving interviews to anyone with a piece of paper and a writing instrument. Now that the M's have become one of the worst teams in baseball for 2 consecutive years, he has made himself scarce. But as the man who hired Bavasi, and would fire him, he is the person to best answer the question. And right now, we just don't know. Unless you are Howard's best friend, you have no way of really knowing how well the team of Lincoln/Bavasi is doing.

Normally when a team loses, the Manager is the fall guy. I'm not sure Bob Melvin filled that role already. The M's tried to get a manager on the cheap who had zero major league experience. He was as dynamic as a fungo. He was let go for many, many reasons.

If the M's lose again, would Bavasi be allowed to fire Hargrove? Or will Lincoln step in and cut Bavasi lose, and worry about the manager when the new GM comes in?

My take is there is ZERO chance Bavasi is fired during the year. The M's upper management team does not make rash decisions. No one is going to argue replacing the GM mid-season is going to turn this thing around. During the offseason perhaps, but no way during the year.

I'm not sure Bavasi is even that close to being fired. Certainly as the point person who presided over some of the worst M's seasons in recent memory, you would think he must be close to unemployment right now. But Bavasi took over a team with so many holes, so empty a cupboard, to argue the M's are bad because of Bavasi is a stretch.

While the M's FO won't admit it, they have been in a forced rebuilding process for some time. They have been waiting for bad contracts to come off the books, while waiting for young players to develop. How many GM's would have been able to turn around this thing any faster?

So to answer my own question, neither Bavasi or Hargrove are going anywhere this season. Bavasi won't fire his own guy in the middle of the season, because it won't help the team in '06.

And Lincoln won't fire Bavasi for the same reason. It won't help the team, and it won't get more people to come to the ballpark mid-year.

The team of Bavasi/Hargrove will be addressed next off season. If Lincoln sees any sign of progress (say .500) both will be back. If the M's lose 100 games, both are gone.

Something in between is where it gets interesting.

What will tip the scales one way or another will be public opinion. If everyone is screaming bloody murder, someone will be sacrificed. If the ballpark is reasonably full and the kids happy, Bavasi and company gets another year.

What will likely sway public opinion will fall on the players he signed the past two years. If Washburn and Beltre have great years, it will take the heat off Bavasi and put it on Hargrove. If both are viewed as colossal disappointments, Bavasi will likely make it easy and clean out his desk himself.

But until the 2006 season is played out, Bavasi/Hargrove isn't going anywhere.