Mariners Analysis

Wednesday, March 22, 2006

Alfonso Soriano

The big news of the day is Soriano caving and agreeing to play left field. Of course we should all face such troubles... get paid $10 million a year to play a kids game, and then complain about the position.

But one of the oft-quoted reasons for Soriano's reluctance to play anywhere else is re: his paycheck. The argument says he'll make more as a 2nd baseman, so therefore he will lose money by playing left field.

But is that true?

No. I don't believe it is. Let me try and make my case.

Exhibit A is Randy Winn. If Winn is worth $8 mil/yr playing for the Giants, and hitting 12-15 home runs a yr in the process, why wouldn't Soriano hitting 25-30 HR's a year be worth more?

He's younger, almost certainly has a better arm, and teams love his bat in the lineup. He can also steal a base, and drives in runs.

So it isn't hard to see how a team might throw $10-12 mil a year at Soriano to play in LF.

Exhibit B is defense. While Soriano might have visions of being a HOF caliber 2nd basemen, the fact is his defense is so bad he'll never stay at the position. He will be forced from 2nd not because teams are stuffed with great 2nd basemen, but because he hasn't mastered the position, plain and simple.

Teams like the Yankees who don't value defense as much as others might are willing to let you hit 25 home runs at 2nd when you make chump change. But when your price tag hits 8 figures a year, more is expected. Being the worst defender at your position is simply not acceptable for $10 million. His offense isn't THAT good.

Exhibit C is pay scale for 2nd base. Sure LF's are "easier" to find, so the saying goes, therefore he'll make less because his numbers look smaller in comparison. But this ignores basic supply and demand in baseball.

The truth is the number of players who can hit 25 home runs in a season is very small. The number of available players in the off season is REALLY small. When Soriano hits the market, it's not that fact he's playing second base that is the primary selling point, it's his POWER. So while LF's like Manny make Soriano's numbers look less impressive, he also makes far more than any 2nd basemen every has.... $20 million a year. It's the classic story of the top earners dragging everyone else along. If Manny is worth $20 million a year, then an "average" LF can easily be worth half that. As a second basemen, Soriano was never going to bust the pay scale & get Jeter, A-Rod or Bagwell type of money. He's not terribly marketable, and he's not a "complete" player. To assume he's worth far more as a 2nd basemen is to ignore what 2nd basemen are worth, and ignores Soriano's value as a baseball player.

So I submit Soriano should be glad he's playing LF for the 'Nats. This actually INCREASES his value in the offseason. It gives him the opportunity to succeed at a position, instead of suck at one. There's a reason he was traded from the Yankees to the Rangers to the Nationals. Players who make big money carry higher expectations.

We'll see if the market agrees with me next year.