Mariners Analysis

Wednesday, March 01, 2006

Sad fact veterans often overpaid

When I first saw the news Randy Winn was suddenly "worth" $8 million a year to the Giants, I thought it was a joke. I mean, Winn is a decent ball player, but he's not even close to being a superstar. Getting to near 8 figures a year means you must be really good, right? But Winn will be reaching a time when players start to decline, not improve. Winn's arm isn't going to get any stronger, and he'll never hit 20 home runs a year for you.

In comparison, if the M's get Ibanez for $5 million a year, it will seem like a bargain. As much as we may hate paying that kind of coin, as long as there are people like a certain unnamed GM in San Fran who will dole out ridiculous contracts, then that is what Ibanez is "worth." It's all about what one team will pay. Apparently Bavasi was so worried Ibanez would be scooped up, he felt the need to offer an extension when he didn't have to.

We all realize GM's want guarantees. We don't know if Felix's shoulder will hold up this year. We don't know what Lopez will do in the field. We don't know if Doyle can stay healthy.

But we're pretty sure guys like Winn and Ibanez will stick around, putting up decent numbers and won't be a distraction. For some teams and some GM's, that is as close to a guarantee as they can get, and they'll throw a lot of money around to keep it.

It's nice work if you can get it...