Mariners Analysis

Thursday, September 27, 2007

Santana not coming to Seattle

If I see one more "Jones for Santana" or otherwise ridiculous proposal about acquiring the best pitcher in baseball I'm going to go crazy!

If you think Morrow will become an effective Mariner starter next spring I would venture to say you don't fully understand the risks in developing pitchers. If you think the M's should make a trade for Santana I'm left with little choice but to conclude you're an idiot.

If you really think the M's have a chance at acquiring Johan Santana, consider:

* Johan is widely recognized as the best pitcher in baseball
* Johan is in the last year of his contract next season
* Johan if healthy will likely command $25 million+ per season, possibly up to 8 years
* The Mariners have ZERO exciting pitchers in the upper levels of the farm system
* The Mariners haven't sniffed the post season in years
* The Mariners are widely considered to have a poor farm system at present, with the best and brightest stars in the lower levels of the organization

For the Twins to give up Santana, they will need to hugely compensated. Not only would they miss out on compensation picks by trading him before his contract runs out, they will expect near-major league players in return. Exactly the type of players the Mariners don't have.

Sure Adam Jones is a nice player. But to land a player like Santana will require MULTIPLE players like Jones. With stocked farm systems in Anaheim, Arizona, Tampa etc... why in the world would the Twins want to poke around the wasteland of Seattle's system when they can cherry pick from the deepest in baseball?

The correct answer is of course they wouldn't. Ask yourself if the trade makes sense for the M's. If yes, then ask yourself if the trade makes sense for the Twins. If it doesn't then forget it. No one said the Twins are morons, and asking them to hand over the #1 pitcher in baseball on favorable terms for the Mariners is simply wishful thinking.

This doesn't even address the question of is Santana worth it. What happens if he doesn't resign and the farm system is set back years in the process? Can the team compete with $45 million committed to Ichiro and Santana if they do sign an extension?

Santana to the M's is a dream, plain and simple. We have about an equal chance to sign A-Rod as we do the best pitcher in baseball.

In other words, we have no chance at all.