Mariners Analysis

Tuesday, July 08, 2008

Bedard unlikely to leave team this summer

For a team that refuses to release Sexson, it's hard to believe they would trade Bedard and get only pennies on the dollar compared to what they just gave up to get him.

For any GM, whether incoming or incumbent, you face the same problem.

Does the player (s) you get in return beat having a lefty starter in your rotation next year with a sub 4.00 ERA?

If not, then you don't make that trade. While it's true the team has huge holes, trading Bedard only opens another. Who replaces him in the rotation next year?

The only way the team gets Bedard off the roster is if a team is desperate and throws a ton of major league ready prospects at them. (Basically give the Mariners what the Orioles got for him this past winter.) But how likely is that?

To get an All-Star caliber reliever. A starting CF who is dirt cheap and gets better by the week. And three additional prospects including the best pitcher in the farm system. That is a HAUL.

In other words, we would need a Bavasi out there somewhere who is so desperate he gives up the farm for Bedard.

I'd put the odds of Bedard being traded this month at about 5%.